Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, introduced a new valuation indicator for the Layer1 public chain project and used the indicator to analyze different scenarios of the election results. Analysis shows that if Donald Trump wins the election, Bitcoin will rise 3 times, Ethereum will rise 4 times, and Solana ($SOL) will rise 5 times, ushering in the copycat season; Waka Kamili ( If Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin will outperform Ethereum, and Solana ($SOL) will not be able to experience even greater gains than Ethereum.
Bitcoin will rise to 200,000! What about Ethereum?
Overall, Kendrick is still bullish on the cryptocurrency market. They expect Ethereum to rise to $7,000 by the end of 2025 after Harris is elected, and to $10,000 if Trump is elected; while Bitcoin will rise to $10,000 during the same period no matter who is elected. Soared to $200,000.
Is Solana’s market value overvalued?
The report pointed out that the ratio of Ethereum's market capitalization to network fees is 121, while Solana's is more than double 250; while Solana's higher inflation makes its actual staking return only 1%, while Ethereum's is 2.3%. In addition, developer data shows that Ethereum accounts for 38% of developers in the entire public chain, while Solana developers only account for 9% of all developers. This series of indicators indicates that Solana ($SOL) is likely to be overvalued by the market compared to Ethereum.
Kendrick believes that in order to maintain its current market value and achieve stable growth, Solana must continue to lead in sectors such as payments and DePIN.
"According to our valuation indicators, investors are generally quite optimistic about Solana's prospects and believe that its network throughput (TPS) can grow 100 to 400 times. Under the premise that Trump wins the election, such a high valuation will be even more Easily rationalized by the market.”
Solana DeFi leads the way
Judging from the active performance on the chain, Solana's adoption rate is likely to be no less than that of Ethereum. According to Artemis Terminal, in the past three months, Solana's (green line in the figure below) on-chain transaction volume has regularly matched that of Ethereum (gray line) Overlap; and the number of daily active addresses is that Solana far exceeds Ethereum. These two data show that Solana's penetration rate for DeFi participants is likely to be higher than that of Ethereum, and it is still rising steadily.
Source: Artemis Terminal Solana and Ethereum chain transaction volume data
Source: Artemis Terminal Solana and Ethereum chain transaction volume data
Overall, although Solana's market value may be overvalued, its on-chain activity still shows growth potential that cannot be ignored. User numbers and on-chain transaction volume data indicate that Solana has made good progress in adoption and DeFi activity. In the future, whether Solana can maintain its leading position in the payment and DePIN sectors will be the key to its market value achieving a long-term upward trend.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
