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Weekly Review
This week, from September 30 to October 7, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $65,618 and the lowest was close to $59,828, with a fluctuation range of about 8.6%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 62,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1.94 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 900,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Important news
Economic News
Oil prices give up gains as Biden says he is considering sanctions on Iranian oil;
The two-year Treasury yield rose 20 basis points to 3.91%. After the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase halved their expectations for the Fed's November rate cut;
JPMorgan Chase: Lowered the Fed's November rate cut expectations to 25 basis points, previously expected the FOMC to cut interest rates by 50 basis points;
The non-farm data performed amazingly, and the scenario of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in November was almost completely ruled out by the market;
The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, far exceeding expectations, the unemployment rate fell, and wage growth was strong;
The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 254,000 in September, the largest increase since March and far exceeding the expected value of 150,000. The previous value was revised from 142,000 to 159,000.
The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% in September, compared with expectations of 4.2% and the previous value of 4.2%;
On October 6, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 97.4%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.75%-5.00% is 2.6%.
Encrypted ecological news
According to Farside Investors data, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have received a total net inflow of $18.53 billion since their launch;
QCP: Still optimistic about Bitcoin's strong performance in October, CPI data will be the focus this Thursday;
NFT trading volume approached $85 million in the week ending October 6, the highest level since late August this year;
On October 7, developers claimed that a new Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) would reduce Ethereum’s block times by 33% and increase data capacity — thereby increasing overall throughput by 50%;
On October 7, New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) said that despite a "seasonally weak" third quarter, Bitcoin is still the best performing asset so far this year;
Coinbase executives: As cryptocurrencies gain more bipartisan support, Coinbase is accelerating negotiations with traditional financial institutions;
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Adding and destroying chips on the chain
Large-value exchange net inflows and outflows
Long-term players hold structure
Total spot selling pressure
(Figure below shows the addition and destruction of chips on the chain)
The new chips on the chain show that there are currently a certain amount of large new chips in the market, which is more optimistic than in the past few weeks.
This proves that the market has a lot of solid growth foundations and the fundamentals remain relatively good.
(The following figure shows the net inflow and outflow of large exchanges)
Although there has not been much large outflow (willingness to buy) recently, the large selling pressure has been much smaller.
The selling pressure in the market began to wane.
(The figure below shows the holding structure of long-term participants)
The overall holding ratio structure of long-term participants has now reached the level in May 2020, returning to the level at the beginning of this year.
This means that most of the market is occupied by long-term participants and has firm diamond hand support. The support is relatively strong and it is not easy to cause a huge market collapse.
(Figure below: Total spot selling pressure)
The overall selling pressure on spot is relatively small and is currently at this year's low.
From this stage and this perspective, it is still relatively safe.
Mid-term exploration
Positive sentiment on the Internet
Liquidity Supply
Incremental Model
Stability and BTC and ETH market value ratio
Long-term and short-term supply ratio
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
After a period of decline, online sentiment is now gradually stabilizing.
Perhaps the mood in the venue is showing signs of slowly recovering and has reached a certain threshold.
(Figure below shows liquidity supply)
The supply of liquidity is slowly being repaired, and when liquidity increases, the market may have a stopping effect.
The market may be suitable at present.
(Incremental model below)
The supply of stablecoins continues to grow and their purchasing power continues to increase.
The sentiment of short-term funds may decline slightly, and the market rhythm may not be too fast, but more inclined to a rhythm of oscillating repair.
(The following figure shows the market value ratio of stablecoins to BTC and ETH)
It is possible that the data may show a rising market while the ratio is decreasing.
At the same time, on the eve of a market downturn or reversal, market relations may reach a certain peak.
The general market value relationship is only for the convenience of observing the macro relationship of the market.
It is currently in a slight decline.
(The figure below shows the ratio of long-term and short-term supply)
Blue line: long-term and short-term supply ratio
In the market's internal on-chain interactions, there is a supply ratio relationship between long-term and short-term chips.
When the blue line is rising, the market may be unstable or in a state of long-term accumulation.
If the blue line is falling, the market may be buying or forming support at the bottom.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor has entered the neutral zone and the risk is moderate.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
The market price performance is basically the same as last week. After the risk factor hit the red zone, the price then adjusted back to the short-term holder cost line (62K) for adjustment. Judging from the risk factor alone, if there is no further selling pressure in the market this week, it will still adjust around the current price.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Option trading volume dropped significantly, while the proportion of put options increased slightly.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives volumes returned to the bottom area after the market squeeze.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility has not changed much.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The current market lacks incremental growth, so the market adjusted again after the positive market sentiment (blue line) reached a short-term extreme last week. In addition, the panic sentiment (orange line) did not surge as a result. Overall, the market sentiment is still neutral, and the market is more volatile.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
Newly added and active addresses are at medium-high levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC outflows slightly, while ETH inflows accumulate.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
A small amount of BTC outflows.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH inflows accumulate.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, while stablecoin purchasing power has been lost significantly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
There has been a small loss in global purchasing power compared to last week, but overall purchasing power is still positive.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions have been losing a lot.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 58,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 58,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 58,000 and 60,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 58,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 66,000 to 70,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
The jobs report could ease concerns that the U.S. labor market is cooling too quickly and could increase the likelihood that Federal Reserve policymakers will cut interest rates by a quarter point next month after a big rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated last week that protecting the labor market was part of the reason the Fed decided to kick off an easing cycle with a larger rate cut in September.
Powell and his colleagues believe no further cooling is needed to get inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target.
In terms of crypto, the overall trend is still bullish from the perspective of the liquidity of the entire options;
In other comprehensive aspects, although last week's performance was poor, the overall performance of the crypto market in the fourth quarter is still bullish.
On-chain long-term insights:
New chips saw their first rapid growth in weeks;
The inflow of large-scale exchanges has declined, and the selling pressure has decreased rapidly;
The proportion of long-term participants’ positions has reached the mid-2020 level, which is similar to the beginning of this year;
The total spot selling pressure is low and is currently at its lowest level since the beginning of this year.
Market setting:
The selling pressure is reduced and the support is gradually getting stronger.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The decline in online sentiment is slowly leveling off;
Liquidity supply increased slightly;
Short-term funds are slightly stagnant, and the pace may slow down;
The market value of stablecoins relative to BTC and ETH has declined;
Short-term capital sentiment in the market did not rise.
Market setting:
Shock, Repair
The situation in the field may be relatively slow, tending to oscillate and repair.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor has entered the neutral zone and the risk is moderate.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a medium-high level.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange shows a small outflow of BTC and an accumulation of ETH inflows.
Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, while stablecoin purchasing power has been lost significantly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 58,000 and a willingness to sell at 70,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Market setting:
In the short term, the market may still fluctuate around the short-term holder cost line (62K), and there is still purchasing power near the current price to further accumulate chips. The overall market sentiment is neutral, and the market may need an opportunity for the next period of market.
Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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