On Monday (October 7), Bitcoin rebounded to above $62,800 in the short term. Although the US non-farm payrolls report exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, hawkish sentiment suppressed the Fed's dovish pricing of more than 50 basis points of interest rate cuts this year, but there was a big news in the currency circle. This week, HBO will broadcast a new documentary. The producer claims to have cracked the secrets of Satoshi Nakamoto, the "father of Bitcoin". The US media emphasized that this may cause Bitcoin to fluctuate violently. Billionaire Elon Musk mentioned that he was the "dark version of Make America Great Again" at the Trump rally, stimulating the surge of DMAGA meme coins.

The mystery of Satoshi Nakamoto's origin is said to be solved. HBO documentary will be broadcast this week

Although Bitcoin has won the favor of Wall Street giant BlackRock, Tesla billionaire Elon Musk and many world leaders, the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto remains a mystery, Forbes reported.

A new HBO documentary titled “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery,” set to air on Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET, features producers claiming to have cracked the secrets of bitcoin’s anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, Politico reported this week.

In an email, a publicist promoting the film claimed that the film would "convincingly prove who Satoshi is," but did not claim to have any proof or new evidence of Nakamoto's true identity. Interest in the identity of Nakamoto has grown, with the anonymous person or group believed to control 1.1 million bitcoins, worth about $66 billion at current prices.

Data from Polymarket, a large cryptocurrency betting platform, shows that Len Sassaman, a cypherpunk who died in 2011, is most likely to be named Satoshi Nakamoto in the HBO documentary, attracting 36% of the bets.

However, Sassaman's Twitter posts from the early days of Bitcoin show that he is not convinced by the technology. He posted: "Personally, I think Bitcoin is overhyped, but the hype itself is interesting."

He added in another post, “Every digital cash expert I’ve spoken to says Bitcoin is bullshit.”

Other possible candidates include Hal Finney, an early bitcoin developer who received the first bitcoin transaction before his death in 2014, as well as bitcoin gold developer Nick Szabo and Blockstream CEO Adam Back.

However, the Polymarket website also predicts that there is a 90% chance that Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity cannot be confirmed in 2024.

Even more exciting, Bitcoin Magazine recently reported that early Bitcoin wallets from the Satoshi era — when they were still posting on the BitcoinTalk forum — have recently woken up and started moving coins.

In the past two weeks, about 250 bitcoins, worth about $15 million, have been transferred from whale wallets.

If any Bitcoin believed to be directly linked to the wallet used by Satoshi Nakamoto were moved, it would be expected to trigger a market crash as traders rush to sell before a tsunami of Bitcoin floods the market.

Non-farm payrolls exploded, unemployment unexpectedly dropped, and the Fed's dovish bets encountered obstacles

The total number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in September was 254,000, higher than the revised 159,000 in August and better than the market expectation of 150,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1% month-on-month to 4.1% in September.

The market expects the unemployment rate to remain stable at 4.2%. As an important indicator of inflationary pressure, the year-on-year wage growth rate rose from 3.9% in August to 4%, and increased by 0.4% month-on-month, which is consistent with the data in August; the labor force participation rate was the same as the previous month at 62.7%.

After the strong jobs data, traders further bet that the Federal Reserve will stick with its 25 basis point rate cuts in November and December and lowered their expectations for the Fed's next four meetings to less than 100 basis points.

Musk's words stimulated the surge in Bitcoin and DMAGA meme coins

Musk attended Trump's second rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday and immediately referred to an alt-right conspiracy movement called "Dark MAGA." "As you can see, I'm not just 'Make America Great Again,' I'm 'Dark MAGA,'" Musk said.

After the news came out, the DMAGA meme coin saw a surge in prices.

According to US media, Dark MAGA (DMAGA) began to appear on the Twitter platform in the form of memes around 2022. The movement calls for Trump to return to the White House at all costs, claiming that Trump should be dictatorial and ruthless in his pursuit of power. Supporters of the movement often share Trump's commonly used MAGA slogans and black and blue images of goods to express their support for its existence, which seems to be inspired by the American dystopian imagery of the Terminator movie series.

So far, Trump has not acknowledged or supported the message behind the DMAGA memecoin.

The hashtag#DarkMAGAbegan trending on Twitter following Musk's comments, with tens of thousands of posts using the hashtag. However, many Twitter commentators seemed to seize on the trending topic as an opportunity to mock Musk's full-throated support for MAGA - including his awkward jumping and dancing on stage.

The Tesla CEO can be seen hanging in mid-air while Trump looks on with a bewildered look on his face.

“Dark MAGA… is more like #DorkMAGA,” one social media commentator wrote on Twitter, with Dork meaning dork.

Before leaving the stage, Musk urged the audience to "pull" people to vote because if they don't, "this will be Trump's last election, is my prediction."

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

CoinTelegraph noted that Bitcoin’s rebound from the 50-day simple moving average at $60,589 suggests that bulls are attempting to form higher lows.

If the buyers sustain the price above the 20-day exponential moving average at $62,237, the momentum is likely to pick up and Bitcoin could jump to $66,500. This level is likely to attract sellers, but if the buyers forcefully break above it, the rally could extend to $70,000.

If the bears want to halt the rally, they will have to quickly sink the price below the 50-day SMA. If they succeed in doing that, Bitcoin could plummet to $57,500 and subsequently to the critical support at $54,000.

The bulls have successfully defended the 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart and the relative strength index (RSI) has jumped into the positive zone, suggesting that the momentum has turned positive. If the price closes above the 50-SMA, the possibility of a rally to $65,000 increases.

Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-EMA, it will suggest that the bears have not given up yet. Bitcoin could then drop to the psychologically important level of $60,000. If this support cracks, Bitcoin could drop to $57,500 and then to the important support at $54,000.