Bitcoin was affected by the conflict in the Middle East last week, causing it to fall to around $60,000. However, with the good performance of US employment data, it has rebounded in recent days and hit a high of $63,980 this morning (7th). As of the time of writing, it is quoted at $63,500.
Although October, known as Uptober, got off to a slow start, it is expected that things may improve later.
From the daily chart, Bitcoin has rebounded from the 50-day MA ($60,589), which means that the bulls are attempting to form higher lows. If the price can sustain above the 20-day MA ($62,237), the upward momentum is likely to increase and increase the possibility of a jump to $66,500.
This level may attract shorts to enter the market, but if the bulls break through strongly, it will be expected to rise further to $70,000. If Bitcoin falls back below the 50-day moving average, it may plummet to $57,500 and then fall to the critical support level of $54,000.
In addition to Bitcoin, there are several altcoins that currently appear to be strong. The following analysis of short-term support and resistance levels is for reference only and is not intended as a basis for investment.
APT price trend analysis
From the daily trend, the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA, $7.89) has started to rise, and the relative strength index (RSI) is also in the buy zone, which means that the bulls have the upper hand. APT will attempt to rise to the head and shoulders bottom pattern target of $11.
However, if the APT turns down and breaks below $7.65, our short-term bullish view will be invalidated. This would represent a false breakout and the price could drop to $5.66.
WIF Price Analysis
The bears in WIF are defending the overhead resistance of the downtrend line, but a positive sign is that the price has not declined below the 20-day EMA ($2.09).
From the daily trend, WIF's two moving averages (MA, EMA) have begun to rise, and the RSI is also in the buying zone, which means that the bulls have the upper hand. The bulls must maintain the price above the downtrend line to indicate a potential trend change; the bears will attempt to stop the rise in the $2.64 to $2.89 range, but if the bulls have the upper hand in the end, it may rise further to $3.50.
If the WIF turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will mean that the bulls have given up their position and a drop to the 50-day SMA ($1.77) is likely.
FTM price trend analysis
FTM completed a head and shoulders bottom pattern when it broke through $0.55. Usually, after a key point is first broken, the market tends to retest that point.
From the daily trend, the 20-day EMA ($0.62) may be a short-term support. If FTM continues to rise and breaks through $0.70, it means that the uptrend will resume, and it may rise to the pattern target of $0.83 and eventually reach $0.93. If FTM turns down and breaks below the breakout level of $0.55, the short-term bullish view will be invalidated.
There are several things to watch this week. The first is whether ETFs can continue to flow in significantly, the second is Powell's interest rate meeting outlook, and the third is non-farm data. These will directly affect whether US dollar assets can continue to flow into the cryptocurrency market. At present, the probability of a 50 basis point (2 code) interest rate cut in November is still more than 50%, but there is great uncertainty (1 code or 2 code). Ultimately, we must observe the unemployment rate. A high unemployment rate and a high interest rate cut will lead the market into recession expectations;
On the contrary, it is the expectation that the money supply is not enough; only low unemployment rate and high interest rate cuts are the most ideal; high unemployment rate and low interest rate cuts are the worst. The first two are relatively in line with expectations, and the latter one is good and the other is bad. These are all things in November, and the current situation is just speculation on expectations.
According to past data, in the years when Bitcoin rose in September, the probability of rising in October was 100%, it was just the extent of the increase. Although it was partially drained by the A-share market, the current leader is still the United States. We should still have confidence. It is historically very likely that the main upward trend will start in October. From 2013 to 2023, only October of 2014 and 2018 fell. At the same time, we just caught up with the global flood of money. It is most cost-effective to patiently wait for the overwhelming wealth.
As for other things in the cryptocurrency circle, all we can see now are those meme coins, which are mixed up in the zoo. It is really the bad money driving out the good money. Investors in the entire market are running around like headless flies. There are no practical applications and no new main line. Bitcoin maintains a high level, and small coins are just surviving. So it is still the same as before, shine > go to the stock market > then go to Bitcoin > then go to small coins > and finally it may be niche assets such as art or NFT.
Regarding ETH, we can only say that these public chains currently show no signs of surpassing ETH, so as long as the general trend has not changed, we just need to remain patient, watch more and act less. The good thing is that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has rebounded slightly recently, but the increase is far from enough, and the strategy is mainly based on holding.
