🛑Informed analysis of the paths of $BTC

🟢 Initially, it is important to remember that we are entering a bullish cycle in the cryptocurrency market, which completed the first stage in the halving and continued with the interest rate cut on September 18, 2024.

🔴 It is also important to remember that no financial asset, whether currency or not, rises without stopping. Corrections are frequent. Typically, in bullish cycles, they reflect the momentary sentiment of the market, influenced by macroeconomic events (for example: interest rates, pandemics, international financial crises, wars)

🔴 Currently, the market is undergoing a price correction as a result of the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, particularly as a result of the attack that occurred last week by Iran against Israel, with fear of the escalation of the conflict.

🟢 Therefore, the consequences of the worsening of the war between Israel and Iran have already been priced in by the cryptocurrency market. This means that those who wanted to sell have already sold. Or in market terms: they are already sold.

🔐 Here lies the opportunity, considering that, even if Israel and Iran continue their confrontation (which is very likely) over the next few weeks or months, prices should return to their previous levels, continuing the rise as a consequence of the upward cycle, as occurred in the attack on Palestine and Lebanon (in Europe, with Ukraine).

🟢 Unfortunately, or not, the market tends to naturalize conflicts, loss of life and wars.

⚠️ This thesis would not be confirmed only if Israel's response against Iran involves a direct attack by the US. Or if Russia directly attacks Israel, in defense of Iran.

So you ask yourself: is this war scenario involving military superpowers possible?

Yes. It is possible. But it is very unlikely.

The US has avoided direct conflicts. On the other hand, it usually provides support to its allies. This does not mean an attack. But, logistics, weapons, money and training.

Russia is doing the same. In addition, it is busy in the war in Ukraine.