TL;DR: Based on historical data, two consecutive positive September and October could indicate a bullish trend. We're currently hoping for Bitcoin to confirm this analysis. Technically, we're eyeing a retest of the upper resistance, and if the market turns bearish, we'll look for Bitcoin to reach the 200MA (59.9k) again and the median (57.5k) of our range. Breaking below these levels could lead to a decline towards the bottom channel (51.7k).
Crypto First Week of the Month Update
There's a lot of bullish sentiment in the market right now due to the "Uptober" prediction. However, is a positive return for this month truly likely?
September saw a surprising 7.39% increase, which is noteworthy given its historical average of -3.67% and a total of -58.74%. In fact, September has only had positive returns in 2013, 2015, and 2016. Interestingly, 2019 marked a break from this pattern, as the year's highest and lowest Bitcoin prices did not occur at year-end.
(2013 - The First Bitcoin Bull Market) (2015 - Second Bull Market)
Historically, a positive September return followed by a positive October return, and then a repeat the following year, has been a bullish indicator. While elections, wars, and other economic factors can have short-term effects on Bitcoin's price, it has often shown a tendency to follow its historical patterns.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin recently attempted a breakout from its descending channel but was rejected due to insufficient volume. If we see a similar move, it might be prudent to take profits, even if it doesn't align with our initial plan.
As for current support levels, we identified the 50MA and 200MA in the 1-day timeframe. Bitcoin has already bounced off the 200MA, and I'm watching for a retest of the upper resistance of the descending channel. We'll short the market and close our long positions if we see signs of weakness. As of now, I'm longing the market since I saw Bitcoin bounce off the 200MA.
#WeAreAllSathosi
#HBODocumentarySatoshiRevealed
#SECAppealRipple
#U.S.UnemploymentNewLow
#BitwiseFilesXRPETF
$HMSTR