Why should we adhere to long-termism?

Let’s take a simple example.

Try to judge whether the market will rise or fall tomorrow, what is the correct probability?

50%, both rise and fall are possible. If you open a contract or short-term, it is very easy to lose money.

Judge whether the market will rise or fall next year, and conclude that it will rise based on the cycle, with a correct probability of 99%. Then, if you buy this year and sell next year, it will be easy to make money. Unfortunately, 80% of people don’t have this patience, so 20% of people have made it.