🚨 3 Reasons - Why BITCOIN Might NOT Reach a New ATH Yet

1. Weak Retail Investor Participation: Despite Bitcoin’s recent price surge, retail interest remains lackluster. For example, the Coinbase app, a popular platform for retail investors, ranked 385th on app stores as of September 28, an improvement from mid-September but still low. This suggests that the broader public isn't rushing to buy, indicating limited new retail inflows, even with Bitcoin’s recent gains.

2. Bearish Sentiment in China’s Stablecoin Market: Data from Chinese markets shows that stablecoins like USDT have been trading below parity with the US dollar, a bearish signal. Typically, stablecoins trade at a premium when there is high demand, but the persistent discount implies a lack of confidence and investor exit from the crypto market in China. This bearish outlook contradicts the positive sentiment seen in institutional inflows, particularly in U.S. spot ETFs.

3. Cautious BTC Derivatives Market: Even as Bitcoin approaches the $66,000 mark, derivatives traders remain cautious. Bitcoin futures contracts, usually favored by institutional investors, are showing a stabilized premium of around 6%, indicating a neutral market stance. This suggests that even sophisticated investors are not fully confident in a sustained rally, which provides bears with an opening to suppress prices.

These factors signal that, despite recent gains, Bitcoin’s price may not be primed for a breakout to a new all-time high.

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