One month left before the 2024 US election - beware of the potential impact of black swans on the cryptocurrency market
Hi! I’m Uncle Bird. The results of the questionnaire I launched a few days ago are out. It seems that 99% of the cryptocurrency community believes that Trump will take office. But what Uncle Bird wants to say here is that no matter who takes office, we have to wait and see. Everything has to wait until the policy is released before we can discuss it. Why do you say that? Listen to Uncle Bird’s analysis for you.
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, changes in its political landscape are having a profound impact on the global cryptocurrency market. In particular, the shifting positions of the two main candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, have injected new vitality and uncertainty into the market.
Candidates' Positions and Market Dynamics
Donald Trump, once a critic of crypto assets, has now transformed himself into an active supporter of the crypto industry. His appearance and public statements at the Bitcoin 2024 conference undoubtedly cast a vote of confidence in blockchain technology and its applications. Trump's transformation not only activated the crypto community, but also foreshadowed a potentially more friendly regulatory environment. If he is elected, the price of Bitcoin and other digital assets is expected to be boosted and usher in a new round of increases.
But is this really the case? We still need to observe
In contrast, although Kamala Harris initially held a reserved attitude towards cryptocurrencies, she gradually expressed her support under the pressure of increased market participation and Trump's positive attitude. Although Harris has not yet put forward specific policy proposals, her change is enough to trigger optimistic expectations in the market.
However, the market is also cautious about changes in regulatory policies after the election, because no matter who is elected, it is likely to bring about adjustments to the regulatory environment.
In-depth analysis of market reactions and policy differences
On September 23, a report released by Bernstein pointed out that Harris explicitly mentioned "digital assets" for the first time, which marked her clarification on cryptocurrency policy. Trump was more specific, and he proposed a series of policy proposals aimed at making the United States a global center for cryptocurrency, including appointing a crypto-supportive SEC chairman, establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, supporting U.S. Bitcoin mining, and regulating stablecoins. The proposal of these policy proposals has undoubtedly injected new vitality into the crypto community.
However, given the current administration's turbulent history in the cryptocurrency space, including Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren's "Anti-Crypto Army" campaign, the crackdown on crypto companies during the 2023 banking crisis, and the SEC's ongoing lawsuits against multiple crypto companies, the crypto community remains on the sidelines regarding Harris' policy clarity and follow-up actions. In contrast, Trump's policy proposals are clearer and more specific, so the market generally believes that if Trump wins, cryptocurrency market sentiment will be stronger.
Countdown to the US election: Ordinary people’s virtual currency layout strategy
As the 2024 US presidential election enters the countdown, the global market is focusing on this highly uncertain election. For ordinary investors, how to reasonably deploy virtual currencies in this uncertain political moment has become an urgent problem to be solved.
Gain insight into candidate policies: Investors should pay close attention to Trump and Harris' cryptocurrency stances. Understanding their policy proposals can help predict the market direction after the election and make more informed investment decisions.
Diversify investments to avoid risks: In the cryptocurrency market, diversification is an effective strategy to reduce risks. Investors should allocate funds to multiple different cryptocurrency projects to reduce the volatility risk that a single project may bring. At the same time, considering investing in blockchain-related fields such as exchanges, infrastructure projects, or decentralized finance (DeFi) applications can also help diversify risks.
Stay rational and avoid blindly following the trend: In the face of market fluctuations brought about by the election, investors should remain rational and avoid making blind decisions due to short-term market sentiment. Make long-term investment plans and invest according to their own investment goals and risk tolerance.
Continuous learning to improve investment capabilities: Cryptocurrency and blockchain technology is an evolving field. Investors should continue to learn relevant knowledge, understand market dynamics, technology development trends, and the policy intentions of candidates to better grasp opportunities and avoid potential risks.
Develop flexible risk hedging strategies: In times of high uncertainty, investors should develop flexible risk hedging strategies. For example, some assets can be converted into stablecoins to avoid losses caused by market fluctuations; or funds can be dispersed into traditional assets such as stocks and bonds to achieve diversified asset allocation.
Maintain a long-term investment perspective: Although the election will have a short-term impact on the market, many investors still believe that cryptocurrencies have long-term value. Therefore, maintaining a long-term investment perspective will help avoid making irrational decisions in short-term fluctuations.
In summary, Bird Uncle believes that the last month of the 2024 US election is a period full of opportunities and challenges for the cryptocurrency market. Ordinary investors should deeply analyze the policy positions of candidates, formulate reasonable investment strategies, and maintain a long-term investment vision to move forward steadily in market fluctuations.
