163 articles: The central bank's "three cuts" are a carefully prepared conspiracy. Before the foreign capital that fled had time to enter the market, they asked whether the outflow of US dollars after the rate cut would come to take over❓
I haven't written a financial article for a long time. I've been busy with the growth of .btc recently, so I'll talk about the underlying logic of thinking about finance these days.
1⃣️I predicted the US interest rate cut in September six months in advance:
Today I flipped through my recent article about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September. It was written on April 10, 2024, and it predicted the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut time about six months in advance. On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced that the interest rate target range would be reduced from 5.25% to 5.50% to 4.75% to 5.0%, a decrease of 50 basis points. This is the first interest rate cut since the Federal Reserve started this round of tightening cycle in March 2022.
My PS on April 10: Although I mentioned many times in public space and tweets in 2023 that the interest rate cut would start between June and September 2024, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is higher at present. Everyone is patient, the US dollar flood after the interest rate cut is coming!
2⃣️The day when the US cuts interest rates is the day when China doubles cuts!
I originally expected that the People's Bank of China would "double-cut" within one month of the Fed's interest rate cut, that is, cut the reserve requirement ratio + cut interest rates. On the 19th, the day when the Fed cut interest rates, I said this in the WeChat group about the double cut: because you didn't consider that the Fed cut interest rates, the People's Bank of China also had to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates.
But what I didn't expect was that only 6 days after the Fed cut interest rates, the Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, announced the "three cuts" on September 24, that is, cut interest rates, cut reserve requirements and cut housing down payment ratios, which greatly exceeded my expectations. Especially the reduction of the down payment ratio for housing is really unexpected. Then the real estate market, which has been in a bear market for three years, must also stabilize (note that it is stabilization, not that the real estate market will rise and you are asked to speculate in real estate. The golden 20-year cycle of real estate has passed. People who have just needs can buy it without waiting for the price to fall).
Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the central bank, said: "I told Wu Qing (Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission) that we can first get 500 billion, then another 500 billion, or even a third 500 billion." Simply put, this is the central bank asking you to buy stocks.
There is a detail. After the media meeting ended in the morning, a female reporter asked Governor Pan about the stabilization fund. This question was too critical! Governor Pan's answer of "under study" was just right and the effect was maximized.It seems like nothing was said, and yet it seems like everything was said!