On Friday, the U.S. released data showing that the PCE price index in August was 2.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected value of 2.3% and lower than the previous value of 2.50%. The core PCE price index in August was 2.7% year-on-year, in line with the expected value of 2.70% and higher than the previous value of 2.60%. The final expected value of the one-year inflation rate in September was 2.7%, and the previous value was 2.7%. The latest inflation data showed that the U.S. core PCE price index in August recorded a monthly rate of 0.1%, the lowest since May, and the market expected it to be 0.2%; the monthly rate of personal spending in August was 0.2%, the lowest since April, and the market expected it to be 0.30%.

Inflation continues to decline, bets on large rate cuts have a slight upper hand, the dollar continues to fall, and dollar-denominated assets are entering an appreciation cycle. The PCE inflation data favored by the Fed continues to cool, which may promote further rate cuts for the rest of this year and next year, and bets on large rate cuts have a slight upper hand. Powell once said, "The upside risks to inflation have indeed declined, and the downside risks to employment have increased; Fed Governor Waller estimates that the core PCE annualized rate in the past four months will be below 1.8%, below the Fed's 2% target.

As the market digests economic data and the prospect of the Fed's rate cut, gold prices rose to as high as $2,685 per ounce, hitting a new intraday high for five consecutive days and rising for three consecutive weeks; the US dollar index fell continuously and may record a fourth consecutive week of decline. On Friday, the US dollar index fell below the previous low, refreshing the lowest level since July 20, 2023 to 100.16, down 0.37% on the day, prompting assets denominated in US dollars to experience appreciation. The Fed hopes to gradually cut interest rates, and Wall Street hopes: do it quickly. Both the Fed and Wall Street believe that the recent 50 basis point rate cut is just the beginning, and there is a lot of room for rate cuts at the end of this year and next year. Lower interest rates will boost market sentiment. The current 4.75-5.0% interest rate given by the Federal Reserve is too high, resulting in $6.42 trillion in cash still lying on US money market funds, or waiting for interest rates to fall, and some of it will flow back to the US stock market/gold/currency market and other markets. The Fed's rate cut cycle has officially begun, the US dollar has entered a depreciation cycle, and the so-called risky assets denominated in US dollars are entering an upward cycle. I hope the bull market will go smoothly and wish you all the best. Happy October 1st, the market is picking up, I will stop updating during October 1st, everyone enjoy the autumn scenery, stay up less late, and be happy. #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #美联储11月降息预期升温 #比特币走势分析