Toncoin price has been consolidating between $5.96 and $5.37, unaffected by broader market signals. While a breakout from this consolidation is possible, technical indicators suggest otherwise.
While Toncoin remains stable within this range, the potential for a correction is high. While recent price action shows small gains, a closer look at the technicals reveals a different picture.
Toncoin about to fall
Toncoin’s long-term holders (LTH) have demonstrated strong confidence by holding their assets without much movement over the past month. This is further confirmed by an increase in the Average Coin Age (MCA), a measure of how long coins have been held in the same wallet. An increase in MCA generally reflects increased confidence among holders as they choose not to sell despite market fluctuations.
However, Toncoin’s history shows that a rise in MCA often precedes a price drop. A lack of movement from long-term holders could indicate a weakening momentum, a common precursor to price corrections. If this trend continues, we could see a repeat of previous price drops, making Toncoin vulnerable to a correction in the short term.
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Looking at the macro momentum, technical indicators are signaling a possible downside for Toncoin. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching a double top divergence, which often signals an imminent reversal.
This pattern, along with the formation of a higher top in price, suggests that the bullish momentum may soon reach its peak.
MCA stumps. Source: Sentiment
A test of the $5.96 resistance level would confirm this double top formation. If the token fails to break above this level, it would reinforce the bearish outlook. The divergence between the price action and the MACD indicator points to a likely correction in the coming days, with the risk of a sharp decline becoming stronger.
Toncoin MACD. Fonte: TradingView
Price forecast
Toncoin is currently trading at $5.80, close to the $5.96 resistance level. While it could test this barrier, it is unlikely to break above it given the current technical scenario. A rejection at this level could lead to a drop, bringing Toncoin back to the $5.37 support zone.
While a correction seems imminent, Toncoin may be able to hold above $5.37 if the bearish signals do not intensify. However, should the bearish momentum increase, a drop to $4.86 could be on the horizon. The market will be closely watching how Toncoin reacts to these critical levels.
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Toncoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
On the other hand, if the optimism surrounding the start of Q4 prevails, Toncoin could break out of its current consolidation range. A breach of $5.96 could propel the token to $6.36, potentially invalidating the bearish scenario. In this case, a rally could emerge, providing new opportunities for investors.
The article Toncoin should break out of consolidation, and then what? appeared first on BeInCrypto Brasil.
