Today's quotes:
The closing line at 8 o'clock in the morning was quite good, closing at the key position of 28,500. Although yesterday's pull-up was accompanied by false news, some main intentions can be seen. Brother Long believes that since it has reached 30,000, there will be subsequent breakthroughs. 30,000 is just around the corner. Judging from the market indicators, the daily macd has a golden cross on the water, and the market has closed at 28,500, which is a strong area. The four-hour level rise is somewhat weak and there is a need to step back. The one-hour price MACD has a need to adjust downwards, which is driving the four-hour step back. Pay attention to the two key supports near 28200 and 27800. There will be power to support the short-term continued rise. lasted. In Bitcoin BTC operation, it is recommended to hold the chips in hand. Today’s focus points are: upper pressure 28500-30000-31000 and lower support 28200-27800-27500.
Why am I so optimistic about the next bull market?
1. The first Bitcoin spot ETF will appear in Hong Kong, China
2. The next bull market will take the lead in rising from the East, with China, Japan and South Korea being the main forces.
3. It is not appropriate to be optimistic about U.S. encryption supervision in the short term. Substantial changes may have to wait until the U.S. election.
4. U.S. Treasury bonds continued to sell off, U.S. bond yields continued to rise, and the Federal Reserve was forced to stop shrinking its balance sheet and resume buying U.S. bonds.
The next wave of crypto bull market will start from Hong Kong, China, and the United States will take over. The superposition of four major factors (Bitcoin cycle, AI technology revolution, interest rate cut cycle, world order restructuring) will surpass the performance of the Bitcoin cycle and rise faster and more Urgent, the cycle will be shortened!
Recommend a potential currency every day, with income ranging from 10 to 100 times
Guideline:
① The fundamentals are good and it belongs to a hot sector, preferably the sector leader;
② Have good narrative ability and ecologically sustainable development;
③The market value cannot be too large
Three don’ts for long-term altcoin planning
1. Avoid cryptoassets that have too large market capitalization or have experienced highs, because they may have reached their peak, and alternatives with greater potential may emerge in the next cycle.
2. Also do not involve crypto assets with too low market value, lack of attractiveness and narrative ability. While success stories like Shiba Inu are possible, such cases are in the minority and in most cases these assets can result in investor losses.
3. Avoid choosing concepts that are too old and lack innovation, because in the field of cryptocurrency, new concepts are usually more likely to arouse market enthusiasm than old concepts. Try to choose projects that are novel, because old projects are usually accompanied by many investors who are stuck.
Potential Coin - L2 Track: ARB
Arbitrum is an Ethereum Layer2 scaling solution based on Optimistic Rollup technology. It was created in 2021 by Offchain Labs, a team of well-known blockchain researchers and software engineers, aiming to solve the congestion and high gas fee problems on Ethereum. .
Simply put, Arbitrum is an auxiliary chain for Ethereum. The operating principle is that Arbitrum packages many transactions together, settles them on the Arbitrum chain first, and then submits the transaction data to the Ethereum main chain.
1. How Arbitrum works
Arbitrum uses a technology called Optimistic rollup, which aggregates off-chain transactions into collective bundles, thereby increasing processing speed, and recording transaction data on the main chain. Similar to zkRollup, Arbitrum transfers calculation engineering to Layer 2, and then packages the results and transmits them back to the main chain, thereby improving efficiency. The difference is that Arbitrum processes transactions more optimistically and assumes their results are correct without any verification. On the contrary, zkRollup needs to be verified through Zero-Knowledge Proof technology and avoid fraud through a fraud proof mechanism.
There are four important roles in Arbitrum's technical architecture: verifier, key, virtual machine and manager. The verifier is responsible for verifying the correctness of the transaction, the key is responsible for protecting the data security between different users, the virtual machine is responsible for executing the calculation project of the smart contract, and the manager is responsible for managing the operation of the entire system. If you want to understand the operating principles behind Arbitrum, you can refer to the official documents released.
2. What are the advantages of Arbitrum?
Among all Layer 2, Arbitrum is the first to launch the mainnet in Layer 2, occupying a certain first-mover advantage. At the same time, Arbitrum is nearly 100% compatible with Ethereum EVM, allowing applications on the Ethereum network to be seamlessly migrated to Layer 2. When the mainnet was launched, 74 projects led by Uniswap V3 were deployed on it.
As shown in the figure, Arbitrum’s TVL accounts for nearly 66% of the total Layer 2 so far, and it can be said to be the well-deserved leader in Layer 2.
In the Layer 2 track, there are many competitors, but compared with competing products, in addition to the first-mover advantage, Arbitrum has significant advantages:
From the data point of view, because of its EVM equivalence, low development threshold, and rapid maturity of a large number of applications, it has formed an effective ecological barrier. Arbitrum's number of transactions and active addresses far exceed its opponents, and it has formed a trend, with TVL all the way up.
In terms of user experience, because Arbitrum is EVM compatible, it can be used directly on the Ethereum Fox wallet MetaMask, which is more attractive to users than many other incompatible competitors.
With its sudden rise in less than two years, Arbitrum has become one of the most popular layer 2 blockchains on Ethereum. It must be said that its strength cannot be underestimated.
ARB Token Economy
Many people are very interested in the supply of ARB and how it will be distributed. The total circulating supply of ARB is 10 billion, and the inflation rate is up to 2%/year. According to the description on the official website, 12.75% of the $ARB token supply will be airdropped on March 23, 2023, with 11.62% allocated to users and 1.13% allocated to the DAO.
Arbitrum ($ARB) is allocated as follows:
17.53% (1.753 billion coins) allocated to Offchain Labs investors
1.13% (113 million coins) allocated to the DAO in the Arbitrum ecosystem
11.62% (1.162 billion) allocated to users of the Arbitrum platform via airdrop
42.78% (4.278 billion) allocated to the Arbitrum DAO treasury
26.94% (2.694 billion) allocated to Offchain Labs team, future team and advisors
Reasons to be optimistic:
1. In the L2 field, TVL currently ranks 4th, occupying the top spot in various data. The Ethereum (ETH) ecosystem is unrivaled as a public chain. ARB has an outstanding position in ETH and supports the largest number of native protocols. With the implementation of the Cancun upgrade, handling fees have dropped significantly and the ecosystem has become more prosperous, so ARB is one of the most investment-worthy projects in the L2 field.
2. Risk and return assessment: The risk level is relatively low, but the potential return is above average.
3. Valuation basis: According to the public chain valuation method, the valuation of top L2 projects usually accounts for 6-20% of the total market value of the public chain where it is located. Using 10% as the calculation standard, Ethereum's market value is US$1.6 trillion, and ARB's possible valuation at the peak of the bull market in 2025 is US$160 billion.
ARB coin price prediction in 2024
Bitcoin is set to halve in 2024, so we should expect a positive trend in the market as user sentiment and investors look to accumulate more Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin’s movements influence the trading direction of other cryptocurrencies, we can expect ARB to trade below $7.135 by the end of 2024.
ARB coin price prediction in 2025
We expect ARB’s price to be higher than its 2024 price as most cryptocurrencies are likely to break more psychological resistance levels due to Bitcoin’s halving from the previous year. Therefore, ARB is likely to end 2025 trading at around $10.9410.
