Binance’s recent coin listing has sparked a lot of discussion, with mixed reviews.
Therefore, I investigated the data of its coin listing from 2021 to the present and classified it, and then combined it with market data for correlation analysis, from which we can observe some conclusions.
1. Coin listing preference
Let’s first look at a picture like this. The horizontal axis is time (by month), and the vertical axis is a direct display of the track. The stacked part represents that there are multiple projects on this track listed this month.
From the above figure we can see:
1️⃣In the last cycle, the focus of listing coins was on "Infra, L1, Game, Defi"; in this round, the number of listing coins in the "Meme" track far exceeded that of others;
2️⃣Compared with the previous cycle, the distribution of coins listed in different tracks in this round is more even, which may also be due to the decrease in the frequency of coin listings.
I tried to summarize the context of BN listing, and my opinion is:
While focusing on the main narrative, we also take a diversified approach.
2. The impact of bull and bear cycles
When we introduce the BTC price into the above picture, we can get the following picture:
We can observe that:
1️⃣The early stage of a bull market is the least active stage. Personally, I think this stage is the stage when the market begins to regain confidence. Many people still have great doubts, so their enthusiasm for participation is not high;
2️⃣During the main rising and bear market phases, the frequency of listing is still quite high. In the bull market, liquidity is sufficient and the market can take it up, which is easy to understand; the bear market may be related to "established plans" and "trading inertia".
Maybe we can find an indicator to tell that the market is starting to go bullish!
3. Coin Listing Model
BN has 4 listing modes: [Direct Listing] [Launchpad Investment Mode] [Launchpad Mining Mode] [Binance Holder Airdrop Mode]. I have sorted out the distribution of the number of listing modes during this period, as shown below:
You can see:
1️⃣The main part is "direct listing", which shows that BN is still doing well in adapting to the market. Although some people think that "listing on BN is the last dance of a coin", listing on BN is still the goal of most projects;
2️⃣ The investment model has a higher risk than the mining model, so the difference between the two ratios is quite large, which is a very reasonable approach;
If we take a closer look at the specific data distribution, we can draw other observations:
We can see that:
1️⃣After August 2023, all will be in mining mode, which should be considered to maintain the price of BNB; when the market enthusiasm is not high, staking BNB as a shovel for mining can also allow large investors to obtain certain benefits and thus "stabilize the basic market";
2️⃣My understanding of the airdrop mode is similar to mining. Maybe we need to see if there are any new ways to play in the future.
Therefore, we can draw the following conclusions:
1. The preference for listing coins has changed significantly
2. The bull-bear cycle has a significant impact on coin listings
3. The coin listing model is fully shifting to the "golden shovel" positioning
4. Overall situation
We can take a broader perspective to see if there are different conclusions:
From this picture we can see that:
1️⃣BN favors Games, although this track has not really taken off yet;
2️⃣BN has also launched many Infra projects, which is still a contribution to the industry. Although some Infra projects are pseudo-demands, supporting infrastructure construction itself is commendable;
5. Market reaction
Finally, I would like to talk about my views on the market reaction. BN’s recent intensive listing of meme coins has upset many people, who feel that this has lowered its own standards and polluted the market prospects.
I think there are multiple factors at play here:
1️⃣VC coins are not popular.
This has become a consensus at present. At a deeper level, I think we need to go back to the topic of "elites and communities". The early development routes and guides were mainly developed by elites. In this process, they were forced or actively involved in more and more conflicts of interest. Gradually, these elites became insidious and used some "packaged and incomprehensible technical terms" to harvest retail investors. After retail investors gradually discovered the facts, they began to turn to the meme market to release the value of emotions.
However, I think these will all be cyclical. Memes have greater volatility and weaker durability, and as the meme craze wears on, deeper interest issues will emerge, and may even emerge faster because there are no compliance restrictions. So after the meme carnival, we will return to real technology projects. Of course, there may be some changes in form.
2️⃣Expectations for BN are too high.
Because BN is the first exchange, it has always been subject to high expectations from everyone. However, we need to realize that BN is just an exchange in essence, and its context is to grasp the main narrative. What is the main narrative? Traffic! Therefore, the main line of BN needs to face the traffic and currency listing. On this basis, if it can list as many projects as possible that are valuable to promote the industry, then it can almost be regarded as our fair expectation of it.
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The above opinions are personal opinions only, and the data comes from BN's announcement data (data from web pages that cannot be opened have been removed)
