📣2024.09.17 (Tuesday) Macro Daily 📣
#加密市场急跌 📈Market Performance
📘U.S. stocks mixed:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.55%, the Nasdaq fell 0.52%, the S&P 500 rose 0.13%, and the Russell 2000 rose 0.31%.
- The 2-year Treasury yield fell 2.1 basis points to 3.566%, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell 3.0 basis points to 3.622%.
- The US dollar index fell 0.44% to 100.6625, and the VIX rose 3.50% to 17.14. Brent crude oil rose 1.84% to 71.48.
📘Chinese stocks fell across the board:
- USD/CNH rose 10 basis points to 7.0979.
- The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.58%, Pinduoduo rose 2.33%, Alibaba fell 1.25%, JD.com rose 0.23%, NetEase fell 0.70%, Li Auto fell 0.37%, Xpeng Motors fell 0.56%, and NIO rose 2.61%.
📘A-shares closed, Hong Kong stocks generally rose:
- Hang Seng Index rose 0.31%, Hang Seng Tech rose 0.51%
- European stock markets rose across the board:
📘The UK FTSE 100 rose 0.06%, the French CAC40 fell 0.21%, and the German DAX fell 0.35%.
- EUR/USD rose 0.52% to 1.1133.
📘Japan, South Korea and emerging markets rose and fell:
- Nikkei 225 is closed, South Korea's Composite Index is closed, India's SENSEX30 is up 0.12%, Indonesia's Composite Index is closed, Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index is down 0.99%, and Mexico's MXX is closed.
📍📍Focus on
📘BlackRock: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and the market's aggressive expectations of rate cuts are unlikely to come true. BlackRock strategist Wei Li changed her stance on short-term U.S. Treasuries from overweight to underweight, saying that the market's bet on the extent of the Fed's rate cuts is unlikely to come true. She denied the market view that "the Fed has waited too long to ease and will now be forced to cut interest rates at a faster pace to support the economy", saying "We think the market is pricing in a bit too much for the depth of the rate cut cycle"
📘Goldman Sachs Weekly Strategy: A 25 basis point rate cut is expected. Although some investors believe that the speed of rate cuts will be a key determinant of stock market returns in the coming months, the trajectory of economic growth is the most important driver of the stock market.
Historically, in the past five cycles when the Fed started cutting rates and the economy did not quickly fall into recession, the S&P 500 returned an average of +6%, +9%, and +17% in the three, six, and 12 months after the first rate cut, respectively. It is worth noting that these gains were mainly from earnings growth, with valuation expansion only three times. Within the market, defensive sectors generally outperformed. In the six months after the first rate cut, the utilities sector performed best, with a median excess return of 5 percentage points and a 75% probability of outperforming the market.
However, given that the market has already priced in a massive rate cut, historical experience may not be fully applicable to the current situation. Goldman Sachs economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time at next week's FOMC meeting, followed by two more rate cuts by the end of 2024 and four more rate cuts in 2025.
📘Putin orders Russia to increase its active military to 1.5 million. On September 16, Putin signed a presidential decree to expand Russia's armed forces by 180,000, bringing the total size of the armed forces to 2.38 million, including 1.5 million active military personnel. The presidential decree, published on the Russian government's official website, will take effect on December 1 this year. Putin also instructed the Russian government to allocate funds to the Russian Ministry of Defense through the federal budget.
📅Today's Key Events
- 20:30 PM U.S. August retail sales data (except for automobile gasoline, which is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and the previous value rose by 0.4%)
- 21:15 PM U.S. August industrial output