Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)

In June of this year, when the market was bleak, "VC coins" were pushed to the forefront and were pointed out as the culprit of the market decline. Binance also stopped Launchpool after IO (io.net).

It was not until August that Binance opened Launchpool again, including TON and DOGS of the TON ecosystem, but the yield was far lower than at the beginning of the year.

Yesterday, Binance launched the Launchpool of HMSTR (Hamster Kombat) again. What is the price forecast this time? What are the changes in the operation strategy and data characteristics of Launchpool compared with the beginning of the year? Odaily will answer this question by digging deep into the past 18 periods of data in this article.

Sneak peek at the core questions and answers

Since the main text involves a lot of data and charts, this section summarizes the core questions and related conclusions as follows. Readers who are not interested in the specific process can directly view the answers:

HMSTR Price Estimates

While maintaining the average annualized rate of return of 108% over the past 18 periods, the Dream price is 0.0593 USDT, the initial circulating market value is 3.817 billion US dollars, and the FDV is 5.93 billion US dollars;

While maintaining the average annualized rate of return of 46.8% over the past five periods, the ideal price is 0.0256 USDT, the initial circulating market value is 1.648 billion US dollars, and the FDV is 2.56 billion US dollars;

Referring to the initial circulating market value of DOGS, the reasonable price is 0.0104 USDT, the initial circulating market value is 671 million US dollars, and the FDV is 1.04 billion US dollars.

Is the current BNB price reasonable based on the annualized rate of return?

Even if calculated based on the initial market capitalization of US$671 million, HMSTR's absolute rate of return for this period was only 0.36%, corresponding to an annualized rate of return of 19%, far lower than the previous average of 108%.

If the time interval of Launchpool is taken into account, the passive income of BNB has dropped to the level of stablecoins such as USDT.

When the destruction of BNB has nothing to do with Binance's profits, Launchpool yield is the only objective measurement standard. If similar "low Launchpool, high circulation" low-yield tokens continue to be listed, there is a risk of overvaluation for BNB itself.

Does BNB price still have a Launchpool effect?

The Launchpool effect disappears. After the Launchpool announcement, the price will not be directly pulled up, and in most cases there will even be a slight drop;

It is more cost-effective to buy one hour after the announcement than to buy immediately after the announcement.

Is the pure mining strategy still effective?

Is the strategy of “buy after the announcement to participate in Launchpool, and sell at the end” during the bull market still effective?

Invalid. Buying after the announcement will only result in losses. It is more suitable for long-term holding, or at least hedging or borrowing for short-term mining.

HMSTR Price Estimates

Absolute rate of return = number of reward tokens × one-hour closing price ÷ (number of staked BNB × BNB price at the start of mining), annualized rate of return = absolute rate of return ÷ mining time × 365 days.

The annualized rate of return for the past 18 periods is shown in the figure below. It can be clearly seen that the annualized rate of return in recent periods has declined significantly.

Therefore, taking the average annualized rate of return of the past 18 periods (108%) as the dream value, and the annualized rate of return of the past 5 periods (46.8%) as the ideal value, the dream price is 0.0593 USDT and the ideal price is 0.0256 USDT.

At the dream price, the initial circulating market value is $3.817 billion and the FDV is $5.93 billion;

At the ideal price, the initial market capitalization is US$1.648 billion and the FDV is US$2.56 billion.

Even at the ideal price, the initial circulating market value will rank 52nd among all tokens, which is very unreasonable. From a rational point of view, the only option is to significantly lower the estimated annualized rate of return.

The reason for this unconventional value is that HMSTR's initial circulation ratio is 64.38%, but Launchpool only has 3%. To maintain the rate of return, it must be achieved by a circulation market value far exceeding the normal level. However, there is already a "beautiful example" of DOGS, whose initial circulation ratio is as high as 93.95%, but only 4% enters Launchpool. Therefore, the circulation market value of DOGS at the time of listing is as high as 671 million US dollars. HMSTR may have the possibility of "creating miracles".

If calculated based on the initial circulating market value of DOGS, the price should be 0.0104 USDT and the FDV would be 1.04 billion US dollars.

Does BNB price still have a Launchpool effect?

Previously, every time Binance announced the launch of Launchpool, BNB would be pulled up "in advance" or after the announcement. Does this effect still exist now?

Assuming that the listing announcement is issued at 14:25 (or any time after 14:00), the corresponding calculation time point is defined as:

  • The price at 14:00 (BNB closing price one hour before the announcement), the price at 15:00 (BNB closing price at the time of the announcement), the price at 16:00 (BNB closing price one hour after the announcement);

  • The increase in price directly after the announcement (the announcement period - one hour before the announcement), and the increase in price after the announcement (one hour after the announcement - the announcement period);

  • The difference in increase (increase after the announcement - increase directly after the announcement), a negative value may be due to the market's lack of confidence in the new tokens or "insider" profit-taking, while a positive value means that the market is more confident.

The other announcement times are changed in the same way, and the data obtained are as follows:

The figure below is a bar chart of "direct increase after the announcement". From the above table, we can see that BNB no longer has the Launchpool effect. The price will not be directly pulled up after the announcement, and there is even more "insider" profit-taking.

In addition, one hour after the announcement, the market turned from rising at the beginning of the year to falling. If you did not buy it in advance, it would be more cost-effective to wait for a certain period of time after the announcement to buy it.

Is the short-term pure mining strategy still effective?

Is the strategy of “buy after the announcement to participate in Launchpool, and sell when it ends” during the bull market still effective?

Buying and holding BNB after the announcement will fall in most cases (72%). Even if there is mining income to make up for it, the overall loss is very significant. Therefore, it is not recommended to buy BNB for mining in the short term, at least choose to hedge. Insure or borrow money for short-term mining.