The CPI data was released last night. The previous value was 2.9%, the expected value was 2.6%, and the announced value was 2.5%, which was lower than expected. In theory, it is a big positive! At present, the biggest consensus on the Fed's interest rate cut forecast on September 18 is 25 basis points. A few days ago, I looked at the betting website on the weekend and there was a 24% probability of betting 50 basis points, but yesterday I looked at it again. There was only 9% left, and the remaining 90% probability was 25 basis points.
Biden and Harris have made some compromises on energy issues. Trump actively supports electric vehicles, and Harris has a major change in his attitude towards the traditional oil industry. Harris has also begun to support the development of shale oil. The consensus of both parties is to lower US oil prices. No matter who comes to power, it is not good news for oil prices, but it is good news for the currency circle!
