The U.S. Department of Labor released the latest #非农就业数据 , and the employment growth was lower than expected, and the data also showed that the data for the past two months was significantly revised down. The market's concerns about the U.S. recession have intensified, triggering close attention to the Fed's policy trends.

Employment data is lower than expected

Non-farm payrolls increased by 142,000 in August, lower than the market expectation of 161,000.

The employment data for July and June were revised down by 25,000 and 61,000 respectively.

The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2%, but the employment data is still worrying.

Market reaction

Market concerns about a recession led to a decline in U.S. stocks, especially the Nasdaq index.

Fed's attitude

Fed officials tried to reassure the market, claiming that the job market has not deteriorated.

The market expects a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September interest rate meeting.

Views of international financial institutions

Deutsche Bank and other institutions pointed out that the weakness of non-farm payrolls may indicate the coming of a recession.

Despite the poor non-farm payrolls data, some large financial institutions remain optimistic.

Fed's balance sheet reduction and interest rate cut

The Fed's balance sheet reduction has slowed down recently.

The market is concerned about when the Fed will shift from balance sheet reduction to balance sheet expansion, which may foreshadow the arrival of a financial crisis.

Forecast of US dollar trend

In the financial crisis, the Fed's balance sheet expansion and interest rate cut policy may cause the US dollar to depreciate sharply.

The liquidity crisis may cause the US dollar index to soar in the short term, but then fall rapidly.

Summary

The non-farm payrolls data in August was not as good as market expectations, further deepening market concerns about a US recession. Although the Fed tried to appease the market, the market had strong expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, and was also closely watching the Fed's balance sheet reduction process. In addition, large international financial institutions are more cautious about this, believing that weak employment data may be a harbinger of a recession. Overall, the market's concerns about a US recession still exist, and it is closely watching the Fed's policy trends.