I think that in the event of positive data being released, before the Fed meeting on September 18, the maximum growth potential of BTC is limited to $64,700, in the event of bad data, the risks of breaking through $51,600 remain.
At this level is the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio. This is an important indicator that tracks the underlying value of Bitcoin holders and overall market activity. If there is no rebound at this level, Bitcoin could likely continue to fall and retest $49,000, as historically, whenever the BTC price has dropped below the realized price-to-activity ratio, it has led to further price declines.
Traders are currently expecting a rebound, but it is not a fact that it will happen. What I recommend paying attention to this week:
1️⃣ The first round of the Harris-Trump debates will take place on September 10. If cryptocurrencies are mentioned, it will have a positive effect on the market. Note that a Bernstein report says that if Trump wins the election in November, Bitcoin is expected to reach $90,000. However, if Kamala Harris wins, it could lead to a drop to $30,000. So we are rooting for Trump!
2️⃣ On September 11, the US CPI report for August will be released. Investors are cautiously awaiting the publication of the consumer inflation report, as it may cause a new wave of volatility - the take-out may be in both directions. Let's not forget that there is currently a strong correlation between Bitcoin price movements and inflation data.
3️⃣ On September 12, the number of initial jobless claims and the producer price index (PPI) will be published. After the publication of the previous CPI and PPI data, the price of Bitcoin fell, so be careful these days.
