Key points:
1. EMA (50 and 200):
- EMA 50 (yellow line) is below EMA 200 (blue line), which is a bearish signal. This "death cross" indicates a weakening of the uptrend and a possible continuation of the downward movement.
- The price is below both moving averages, which confirms market weakness and potential selling pressure.
2. Bollinger Bands:
- The price is approaching the lower Bollinger band, which may indicate possible oversold conditions in the short term. However, the price being below the middle Bollinger band and moving averages increases the likelihood of a continuation of the downward movement.
3. Stochastic RSI:
- Stochastic RSI is in the oversold zone but has not yet shown signs of reversal. This may indicate the possibility of a short-term rebound, but there is no confirmation yet.
4. ADX (14):
- The ADX value at around 21.30 indicates a weak trend. This may mean that the current downward movement has not yet gained sufficient strength and the market may be in a consolidation or weakening trend phase.
Support and resistance levels:
- Support: The nearest support level is around 55,550 USD. If the price breaks this level, further declines are possible.
- Resistance: The main resistance is at 59.521 USD (EMA 50). As long as the price remains below this level, the bearish scenario is likely to continue.
Forecast:
- Bearish scenario: The downtrend is confirmed by the price being below the moving averages, and the likely downside move may continue if the support at 55.550 USD is broken. If this happens, the price may go even lower.
- Short-term bounce: Since Stochastic RSI is in the oversold zone, a short-term bounce is possible, especially if the price tests the lower Bollinger band. However, this could be a temporary correction before the decline continues.
Recommendations:
- For short: If you are considering short, entry may be justified on breakout of USD 55,550 with target at lower levels. Stop loss can be set above USD 59,521.
- For long: To open a long position, it is better to wait for the Stochastic RSI to reverse and confirm a rebound from the current support levels (for example, 55,550 USD).
Conclusion:
With the current chart situation and bearish signals from the EMA and the price below support levels, the probability of a continuation of the downward movement remains high. Expect a break of support for a more obvious bearish signal or a short-term rebound for an opportunity to lock in profits.
If this support zone is broken and the Bitcoin price falls below $54,700, the bears will pull the price to the 49,000 area. Then the bullish momentum will be completely lost.
Volatility is high this week, so trade accordingly.
