12/13 Bitcoin’s rebound is too weak and will continue to fall. Where is the opportunity to buy at the bottom when there is insufficient time and space?
First of all, let me state the fact that this wave of Bitcoin rebound from 24,900 to 45,000 is the largest wave increase this year and it lasted for two and a half months. Therefore, no matter whether it is the main uptrend or the accelerated bull market, once the trend is formed, the probability of a short-term reversal is relatively small, and a pullback is still an opportunity to increase positions. Then, whether it will rebound to 45,000 and stay at the top or continue to set new highs, conditions need to be triggered.
Last night's CPI had little impact. On December 14, the Federal Reserve announced its December resolution statement and Powell held a monetary policy press conference. Sentiments will continue to be hyped before the Bitcoin ETF and halving. I said before that the SEC has been delaying all the way in order to maximize profits. The US dollar and US bonds have not completely surrendered. The offshore RMB has achieved a phased victory, but it dare not directly confront the US dollar's status and the euro and yen.
Flatbread
The daily line fell with large volume. MACD diverged for the third time, and the CCI indicator continued to move down. There is a high probability that 4000 will not be supported. At present, the daily line is still supported by the rising support line, but the current rebound is weak. Although we are still optimistic about the rebound after the pullback, the current conditions have not been triggered. Several key support positions of the Fibonacci retracement line 0.382 (37136) 0.5 (34800) 0.618 (32464) B security data.
In my personal opinion, it would be appropriate to bottom buy if the price can pull back to 0.382 and 0.5 in the future. 0.618 (32464) is a mid- to long-term bottom buying opportunity.
4 hours
Now that the market has formed a descending triangle after the decline, it will depend on whether 40,000 can be held. If it falls below 39,972, it will face weekly level adjustments. The time and space will be extended, so we still need to pay attention to risks.
ether
As of press time, the Ethereum column pierced the middle track of the daily BOLL, and the overall trend is still downward. The weekly breakthrough position of 2141 is also very close. The MACD bottom diverged three times and returned to the zero axis. The CCI indicator continued to move downward. The previous ascending triangle breakthrough on the daily line is currently testing this support. Ethereum will first fall below the Fibonacci 0.236 (2186) and the next support 0.382 (2059) 0.5 (1956).
The weekly line has not yet been finalized, but an engulfing pattern has appeared. If the 2141 weekly line support is broken and cannot be recovered quickly, the risk will increase.
The three low points of the 4-hour spike are constantly moving down. This is a weak performance, and you still need to wait patiently.
If the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to be suppressed by the BOLL middle track, the probability of continuing to fall back to around 0.051 will increase.
