People always overestimate what they can do in a year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. If you record what you do and learn every day and persist in doing so, it will be very meaningful.
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Operation X Read books to improve trading Exercise Learn English
How hard it is to wait for a bull market? The length of my hair should be a good illustration. I grew my hair from a normal male length to shoulder length, cut it short and then left a wolf tail again. Only then did the bull market fully start.
In 2019, my hair was just as long as it is now, and the market was just going through a rebound and adjustment phase.
According to this time calculation, there is still a one-year window period. In addition to watching the market, most of the time, you just look at some random news. However, 90% of the news is meaningless and is just a trick. You can choose to put down all electronic devices and develop the habit of taking notes every day. A good memory is not as good as a bad pen. Think of writing and thinking as a practice.
Everything is for my use, everything helps me practice. Trading is different from doing business. Traders spend more time waiting and retreating to advance. The most important thing in trading is timing, while doing business requires constant paving, tossing, and attacking to defend.
Summarize the techniques that you learn every day that are helpful for trading, record them in your notes, and then use them for X operations. Focus on operating a trading platform that is worth learning.
For X with reference value, it is meaningless to interact with big Vs. If there is no value output, no matter how much interaction there is, it will be useless.
Writing too much about experiences and rehashing leftovers is definitely not a long-term solution. X friends already have a basic understanding of the book, and after reading too much, they will be relieved and bored, and eventually they will return to normal fresh dishes.
Today I am reading Chapter 14 (Time Cycle) of "Technical Analysis of Futures Markets". Time cycle is particularly important. "Turtle Trading Rules" also provides a system about time cycle.
Everything is a cycle, with yin and yang in harmony. (Time Cycle) mentions the 22.2-year cycle of sunspot activity and the 22.2-year cycle of international war. Dewey believes that there must be some mysterious force in the universe that controls these cycles, and the universe has some kind of pulsating characteristics.
However, the cycle usage mentioned in this article (Time Cycle) does not apply to the cryptocurrency world, but it describes two systems that are similar to the two systems given in the original Turtle Trading Rules at the end of the book.
(Time period)
4-Week Trading Rule and 8-Week Trading Rule
When the price breaks through the highest point of 4 weekly trading days, it is time to enter the market
When the price breaks through the highest point of 8 weekly trading days, it is time to enter the market
(Original Turtle Trading Rules)
Short-term system based on 20-day breakout
Long-term system based on 55-day breakout
The time cycle system given in the two books is the same, so we can also find out the time cycle system from the currency circle through long-term observation and observation.
When a big trend comes, the main force will cultivate the habits of retail investors and use the same trading methods many times to paralyze retail investors. Let’s take $BTC as an example.
When $BTC broke through 20,000 USD and started the major uptrend, it rose to 42,000 USD in 43 days and then entered the adjustment period and adjusted to 28,000 USD.
After 42 days, the price of USD 28,000 rose to USD 58,000 and entered the adjustment period.
Adjusted to 42,000 USD
42,000 USD 50 days later, it rose to 65,000 USD
There is a very strong time cycle here. Have you noticed? The time from the decline to the reversal high is not too long. The main upward trend starts, the adjustment time to the new high time. The three waves of the market are not too long apart.
One example is not enough, let’s take another example $LTC
See the picture. Among the 5 adjustments, the first two adjustments took 17 days each.
The third and fifth adjustments lasted for 8 days and both dropped by 38%.
The time period is not strictly defined. Because the period span is large, there can be some deviation. However, through observation, it is found that in the bull market, since such a time period will appear, it can be used as a tool in the analysis toolkit to assist us in opening and closing positions.
Let’s look at the time scale in the figure below. From the lowest point of the bear market in 2015 to the highest point of the bull market in 2017, the time span is 1060 days.
From the end of the highest point of the bull market in 2017 to the lowest point of the bear market in 2018, the time span is 360 days.
The time span from the lowest point of the bear market in 2018 to the highest point of the bull market in 2021 is 1060 days.
The time span from the highest point of the bull market in 2021 to the lowest point of the bear market in 2022 is 378 days. If 2022 is the lowest point, then we can use this data to make a time span of 1066 days. Around October 2025, it may be the time node of the next bull market peak. In my opinion, even if the span of such a large-scale time cycle differs by 100 days, it is not considered a serious deviation, let alone the difference of ten days and half a month? With such a time cycle framework, we can naturally better assist our expectations and decisions on the market.
The art is dead, but people are alive. All data is definitely not completely accurate. Since there is a span of time period, we use it as a reference and observe the market carefully, striving to capture the next time period law in the next bull market trend.
