Let me talk about my personal opinion. Interest rate cuts usually lead to a decline because in the process of interest rate cuts, the market shifts from defensive to remedy the situation. In other words, in the history of the United States, most of the time when interest rates are cut, they are accompanied by economic recession. Interest rate cuts are intended to alleviate recessions, but they cannot solve recessions. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term data, in most cases, when interest rates are cut, the risk market falls.

But interest rate cuts represent a process, or even a very long process that may last for 16 months or more. In this process, there may be different developments as the economy changes. For example, in the early stage of interest rate cuts, if there is indeed no economic recession, the market may not be too pessimistic. I can understand what you said about Sell The News. It means that the interest rate cut is expected, so the market reacts in advance, and users will sell after the interest rate cut.

I can't say that this is definitely wrong or right. As mentioned earlier, interest rate cuts are a process, not a one-time thing. For example, there are interest rate cuts in the remaining three months of this year, so when should Sell The News be?

As for the election, from the historical data, most of the risk markets rose in the two months before and after the election, a total of five months. There is even a saying that the more it fell before the election, the higher it rose after the election. Of course, this is a historical summary, and there have been elections superimposed on economic recessions in history, but the trend was indeed good during the election.

So from my point of view, as long as the economy does not decline in 2024, there is still a great possibility that the election at the end of the year, the halving market, the interest rate cut and the FASB will ferment together. Of course, this is just my personal opinion and does not mean that it will definitely happen. Some friends have said that if everyone is bullish, it will definitely fall. I don’t know if this statement is right, but I personally don’t think so, especially after#BTCand#ETHhave passed ETFs, the trend of the currency circle will be more consistent with the US stock market, the US macro, and the US economy.

Then it is very likely that what applies to the US stock market will also apply to the currency circle. $BTC $ETH #美联储何时降息？