Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Since Ling Wei took over as the Director of Ecosystem Development of BNB Chain, BNB Chain has been visibly increasing its efforts in the Meme track, such as the official "Meme Innovation Battle" of BNB Chain and the Meme Trading Competition launched by the Meme Ecosystem Project Four.meme.
Yesterday, the Binance Web3 account also published a post supporting Four.meme and the Meme ecosystem, and listed Four.meme on the main page of Binance's Web3 wallet, which greatly increased the expected value of the project itself and the token. Odaily will interpret the protocol and its airdrop activities in this article.
Protocol Overview
Four.meme (hereinafter referred to as Four) is a Pump-type meme launch protocol with similar internal and external disks and Bonding Curve mechanisms. I will not go into details about this part. The differences from Pump include:
Purchase limit: Token deployers can limit the maximum amount investors can buy (optional) to prevent a small number of users from holding too many tokens;
Scheduled launch: The token deployer can set the token's internal trading opening time (optional);
Internal transaction fee: Four transaction fee is 0.5% (minimum 0.001 BNB), Pump is 1%;
Slightly higher initial liquidity: Four’s initial liquidity is 24 BNB (current price is about $13,680), and Pump’s initial liquidity is 85 SOL (current price is about $13,430);
Slightly lower coin issuance cost: Four's coin issuance cost is 0.005 BNB (current price is about US$2.85), and Pump's coin issuance cost is about 0.02 SOL (current price is about US$3.16).
Interactive Activity Actuarial
Four's airdrop points are divided into four parts: pre-airdrop, daily check-in, platform usage and social media tasks.
The pre-airdrop is aimed at issuers and users of Pump; top traders of the four tokens FOUR, ANDY, BIC, and WHY; and the first 500 users of Lista DAO points.
Odaily breaks down the following three modules, "daily check-in, platform usage, and social media tasks", into three parts as follows to facilitate quantification of the value of airdrop participation.
Free Score
In addition to the pre-airdrop, completely free points include new user invitations and social media tasks, including linking X accounts, Telegram accounts, etc.
Each new user invited will earn 10 points, and the four social media tasks will total 40 points. According to the cost calculation in the next section, the value is approximately 0.07 USDT/each new user and 0.28 USDT/four social media tasks.
Basic payment score
This section divides "Daily Check-in", "Transaction Volume" and "First Transaction" into the basic payment score.
Daily sign-in: 10 points will be awarded, the cost is the Gas fee. After testing, the current sign-in fee is about 0.0000223 BNB, so the cost per point is 0.000022332×570÷10=0.0012711 USDT/point.
Trading volume: The points rule is "40 points for every 0.1 BNB trading volume". Without considering the profit or loss of tokens, calculated based on a 0.5% handling fee, the cost per point is 0.1×0.5%×570÷40=0.007125 USDT/point.
First transaction: You can get 100 points after completing the first transaction. According to the author’s test, there is no minimum purchase amount, but the minimum platform commission is 0.001 BNB. According to this value and the gas fee, the cost is (0.58+0.07) ÷ 100 = 0.0065 USDT/point, which is worth participating.
The total number of users disclosed by the current platform is 16,000, with 160,000 new check-in points added daily, which is negligible compared to the current platform's total score of 520 million.
Here we can draw a conclusion that the point cost of transaction volume is the most important and reasonable, so the unit cost of points is recorded as 0.007 USDT/point.
Advanced paid scores
Advanced paid scores require users to use the Four platform to issue coins. Due to legal and regulatory requirements, mainland users are advised not to attempt this. This section is only used as a comparative calculation display.
Initial coin issuance: Completing the initial coin issuance will earn you 200 points, with a cost of 0.005 BNB (current price is about US$2.85), and a unit cost of 0.01425 USDT/point, which is not cost-effective if viewed alone.
First transaction: After the tokens issued by the user are traded once by other users, 100 points will be awarded. The cost is the same as the "first transaction" in the previous section. Therefore, if you issue the tokens by yourself and trade with a small account, you can get 400 points for "first issuance" + "first transaction" + "first transaction". The total unit cost should be (2.85+0.58+0.07+0.58+0.07)/400=0.010375 USDT/point, which is still not cost-effective.
Launch Pancake: When users issue coins and fill up the internal disk to launch Pancake, Dev will get 10,000 points, and the top 10 holders will get 500 points each. Since the platform does not specify the commission and the online ratio, here we refer to "Pump.fun is fully filled by Dev, and then all sold on the external disk" for calculation. It takes 85 SOL to fill it up, and there will be 17 SOL left in the pool after all sales. In addition, the platform will extract about 3 SOL as deployment fees and protocol income, so the loss ratio is about (17+3)/85=23.5%. The unit cost of points is 13680×0.235/(10000+500*10)=0.21432 USDT/point, and it is very uneconomical to fill it up by yourself.
Airdrop and protocol value calculation
Optimistic assumptions
Since there are currently no platform coins worth referring to for Pump platforms, and there are no high-income platforms except Pump.fun and SunPump, it is assumed here that BNB Chain will vigorously support Four.meme and the airdrop value is assumed to be US$10 million.
Multiplying the total platform points of 520 million by the reasonable value of 0.007 USDT/point, the total value is 3.66 million. With the target value of 10 million US dollars, it still has interactive value.
However, please note that points will be diluted over time and with the increase in participating users. According to official documents, the first season of the airdrop activity will end at 14:44 (UTC+8) on October 20, 2024, which is 56 days from the time of posting.
Calculating backwards based on 10 million US dollars, the corresponding transaction volume would be (1000-366)×10000÷(0.007×40×0.1)×570=1.29 billion US dollars, with an average daily volume of 23 million US dollars (Pump.fun's average daily volume is 50 million US dollars), which is difficult to achieve.
But in addition to the transaction volume, there is also a 5% wallet bonus, an unknown proportion of invitation bonus and other tasks, which will dilute the score. Therefore, the conclusion is: if it is assumed that the airdrop value of Four can reach 10 million US dollars, it has a certain interactive value, but the profit and loss ratio is average.
Actual data
Dune statistics show that Four's trading volume in the past five days is 19,246 BNB, corresponding to 19,246÷0.1×40=7.698 million points;
There are 60 full inner plates, corresponding to 60*15000=9 million points;
The total points are 520 million, the number of addresses is 16,054, the average score is 32,660 points/address, and each address traded 81.6 BNB according to the transaction volume;
The scores of the top 100 addresses range from 900,000 to 1.1 million, so the total score of the top 100 is about 100 million, accounting for 19%.
in conclusion
In summary, the top addresses on Four.meme have obtained a large number of points through unknown channels. According to the current transaction volume of the platform, the subsequent growth and proportion of points will not be too large. Therefore, only when the expected value of the airdrop exceeds 10 million US dollars or the transaction activity of the platform increases significantly, there will be a certain interactive airdrop value.
However, judging from the performance of the leading token binancedog and other tokens listed on Pancake, the Four ecosystem’s wealth creation and Fomo’s rhythm control are average. Apart from the advantage of official support, there is no sign of community and sentiment gaining momentum. The win rate and profit-loss ratio are insufficient for the sole purpose of airdrops. Currently, it is only recommended to use it for trading purposes.