Toncoin (TON) has fallen sharply over the past 24 hours as panic selling intensified following the sudden arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov by French authorities.
TON's price fell as much as 25% to $5.24 on August 25, a day after news of Durov's arrest broke. Durov faces charges related to data privacy and cryptocurrency regulation violations. The price has since returned to $5.70.
TON 4-hour price chart | Source: TradingView
Telegram played a key role in promoting and integrating Toncoin into its ecosystem, making Durov a central figure in the coin’s story and future development. As a result, some Toncoin traders sold their holdings in a panic upon hearing the news.
However, a number of technical and market factors suggest that TON may be poised for a significant recovery in the coming weeks.
TON is likely to recover strongly like BNB
The steady decline in TON price appears to be similar to how BNB performed in the days leading up to former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao's sentencing.
BNB fell 13.5% before Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) was sentenced in the United States on April 30. However, after the dust settled, the cryptocurrency rebounded strongly, gaining nearly 35% from its lows and reaching nearly $700 on June 6.
BNB Price Chart | Source: TradingView
When news of legal troubles breaks out, especially involving key figures like CZ and Durov, it triggers a wave of panic selling as traders rush to protect their investments from potential consequences.
However, once the initial shock subsides, the market will reassess the situation more rationally.
In BNB’s case, after the controversy surrounding CZ’s sentencing faded into the background, traders realized that the legal issue, while serious, did not pose an existential threat to Binance as a company or its ecosystem.
This led to a shift in sentiment from fear to optimism, as traders who had sold out in panic began to return to the market, pushing the price of BNB up 35%.
The same psychological pattern could play out for Toncoin. Initially, Durov’s arrest could be seen as a major red flag, leading to a sharp drop as traders exited their positions.
But if the market then views the seizure as an isolated incident that does not fundamentally undermine the Toncoin ecosystem, they may start to view the dip as a panic buying opportunity.
TON bounces from ascending channel support
From a technical perspective, TON is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, as seen on the daily chart.
The TON/USDT pair bounced from the lower trendline of this channel, which has acted as strong support since its formation earlier this year.
TON Price Chart | Source: TradingView
Additionally, TON's daily relative strength index (RSI) was 37.54 on August 25, near the oversold threshold of 30, which typically leads to consolidation or recovery.
The upper trendline of the ascending channel is currently hovering near $8.50. A move to this level would represent a roughly 50% increase, in line with the bullish momentum suggested by the RSI.
Rising OI and funding rates signal market confidence
Toncoin futures market data also showed growing confidence from traders. Following Durov’s arrest, TON’s open interest (OI) rose to $303.62 million, its highest level since July. Meanwhile, funding rates per eight hours rose to a three-month high of 0.0101%.
TON OI and funding rates | Source: Coinglass
Increasing OI indicates that more money is flowing into the TON futures market, signaling increased interest and speculation in the price direction. Positive funding rates mean that traders are increasingly willing to pay a premium to hold long-term TON Long positions.
Furthermore, rising funding rates mean traders are betting on the price heading higher, further fueling the potential for a strong move higher. If this momentum continues, it could lead to a rapid price increase, potentially taking TON towards its target of $8.50 and beyond.
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