1. Overview of the Crypto Market
At present, the crypto market presents a complex and volatile situation. In terms of market size, it has grown rapidly. In May 2021, the total market value of cryptocurrencies reached a peak of 2.4 trillion US dollars. Although it has fallen since then, it has remained at a relatively high scale overall. The total market value of digital currencies has exceeded trillions of US dollars, attracting a large number of traditional financial institutions and individual investors.
In terms of the performance of major currencies, Bitcoin has long dominated, but now other digital currencies are gradually eroding its share. Emerging currencies such as Ethereum are also emerging in the market.
The development trend of the industry shows a number of significant characteristics. For example, the field of DeFi (decentralized finance) is heating up again, providing users with more open and efficient financial services. The NFT (non-fungible token) market continues to be booming. Projects covering art, entertainment, games and other fields continue to emerge, and the transaction scale of digital collectibles and virtual assets continues to expand.
At the same time, the continuous influx of institutional funds has also become an important trend. More and more traditional financial institutions and large enterprises are accelerating their layout in the crypto market and launching related products and services, which not only improves the liquidity and stability of the market, but also promotes the legalization and standardization of digital assets.
However, the crypto market still faces many challenges and uncertainties. The ambiguity of policies and regulations is an important factor affecting market development. Different countries and regions have different attitudes and regulatory policies towards cryptocurrencies. In addition, the market is highly volatile, and investors need to have strong risk tolerance and professional knowledge.
2. Factors affecting position layout
1. Overall market valuation
The overall market valuation is one of the important factors that determine the position layout. When the overall market is at a low level, it means that the prices of most assets are relatively low, and the investment value is prominent. At this time, you should consider increasing your position and actively deploying high-quality assets. For example, when the overall market price-earnings ratio is low, asset prices are often underestimated, and there is a greater potential for future increases. Investors can appropriately increase their positions to obtain the rich returns brought by the future market recovery. On the contrary, when the overall market is at a high level, asset prices are generally high, and the risk of bubble formation increases. At this time, you should reduce your position to avoid the risk of a possible sharp correction.
(II) Industry Valuation
Valuation differences across industries have a significant impact on position decisions. Some emerging industries, such as blockchain, artificial intelligence, etc., may enjoy higher valuations due to their high growth potential. But for traditional industries, such as steel and coal, valuations are usually relatively low. When arranging positions, if the valuation of emerging industries is reasonable and the growth prospects are clear, positions can be appropriately increased; for emerging industries with overvalued valuations or traditional industries with long-term depressed valuations, positions must be carefully controlled. For example, when the valuation of the new energy automobile industry is reasonable and policy support is strong, you can increase your position allocation in this industry; and when the real estate industry faces policy regulation and the valuation is low, you need to comprehensively consider industry development trends and corporate fundamentals. to decide the position.
(III) Valuation level of individual stocks
The valuation level of individual stocks is the key to position allocation. Undervalued stocks mean that the price is low relative to its intrinsic value, with a higher safety margin and potential upside. At this time, you can appropriately increase your position in the stock. On the contrary, overvalued stocks may have price bubbles and face a greater risk of correction, so you should reduce your position or temporarily avoid it. For example, if a stock's price-to-earnings ratio is much lower than the average level of the same industry, and the company's performance is growing steadily, then you can increase your position in it; if a stock's price-to-earnings ratio is too high, and its performance growth cannot support its valuation, you should reduce your position or even not participate.
3. Position strategies under different risk preferences
1. Conservative investors
Conservative investors usually pay more attention to the security of funds and have a lower tolerance for risk. In the crypto market, their position arrangements should be relatively cautious. It is recommended to allocate most of the funds to relatively stable assets, such as bonds or blue-chip digital currencies with solid fundamentals, and the position can be controlled at around 70%. For high-risk emerging currencies or projects in the early stages, the investment ratio should not exceed 10%. In addition, keep about 20% in cash to deal with market emergencies and possible investment opportunities. For example, when the market fluctuates greatly, conservative investors can increase their positions in bonds or blue-chip digital currencies and reduce the proportion of high-risk assets to ensure the stability of assets.
2. Balanced Investors
Balanced investors seek to find a balance between risk and return. In terms of position management, they can invest 50% of their funds in relatively stable assets, such as mature mainstream digital currencies or stable funds related to the crypto market. At the same time, 30% of the funds are allocated to emerging currencies with certain growth potential or projects in the middle of development. In addition, 20% of cash or highly liquid assets are reserved so that positions can be adjusted flexibly when the market changes. For example, when the market is on an upward trend, the position of emerging currencies can be appropriately increased; when the market is unstable, cash reserves can be increased and the position of risky assets can be reduced.
3. Aggressive Investors
Aggressive investors are willing to take higher risks in pursuit of higher returns. They may invest 70% of their funds in high-risk, high-return crypto assets, such as emerging, innovative digital currencies or early-stage projects with great potential. 20% of the funds can be used to invest in mainstream currencies with a large market share to maintain a certain degree of stability. At the same time, keep 10% in cash as emergency funds. However, it should be noted that while aggressive investors are pursuing high returns, they should also pay close attention to market dynamics and do a good job of risk control. For example, when the market is optimistic, aggressive investors can further increase their positions in high-risk assets, but when there are obvious signs of adjustment in the market, they should stop losses or adjust their positions in time.
4. Timing and methods of position adjustment
1. Adjustment in a weak market
When the market is weak, it is crucial to reduce positions and optimize the position structure. First, we should pay close attention to market trends and individual stock performance. For those stocks that have already broken down and have little room for growth, we should decisively liquidate them to reduce losses. At the same time, for stocks that are shallowly trapped but have poor future expectations, we should also resolutely cut positions.
In terms of reducing positions, the allocation of high-risk assets, such as emerging and volatile digital currencies, can be gradually reduced. For investors with heavy positions, they can seize the opportunity of a small market rebound, appropriately reduce their positions, and retain sufficient cash reserves.
When optimizing the position structure, funds should be tilted towards assets with stable performance and strong resistance to decline. For example, choose digital currency projects with strong technical support, a good user base and a stable profit model. For assets that lack substantial value and are hyped, clean them up in a timely manner. In addition, some assets with hedging properties, such as gold-related digital currencies, can be appropriately allocated to cope with market uncertainties.
2. Adjustment in a strong market
When the market is strong, increasing positions and seizing investment opportunities are key. First, we must accurately judge the market trend and confirm that it is a sustained strong market. When increasing positions, we should give priority to the leading currencies in the hot sectors of the market, which often have greater potential for growth.
At the same time, for the high-quality assets already held, you can appropriately increase your holdings to expand your profits, but you should be careful to control the pace of increasing your holdings and avoid excessively chasing high prices.
In terms of seizing investment opportunities, we should pay attention to the opportunities for industry change brought about by favorable policies and technological innovation. For example, when new blockchain technology applications achieve breakthroughs, related currencies may see a sharp rise, and we should make timely arrangements. In addition, for emerging digital currency projects with huge development potential, we should increase our positions at the right time based on a full assessment of the risks. However, we should also remain vigilant, pay attention to market changes at any time, and be prepared for risk control and position adjustments.
5. The Art of Allocating Bottom Warehouse and Floating Warehouse
1. Construction and function of the base warehouse
The base position is a position that investors build at a relatively low level. Its core role is to reduce costs and lay the foundation for long-term profits. By building a base position, investors can obtain more chips with less money, creating conditions for obtaining lucrative profits when the market improves. For example, when the market is at a low level, investors buy a certain amount of cryptocurrency at a lower price as a base position. As the market gradually recovers, the value of these base positions is expected to increase significantly.
The base position can also help investors maintain a relatively stable mentality in market fluctuations. When the market undergoes a short-term adjustment, due to the existence of the base position, investors will not blindly follow the trend for fear of missing out on the market, thus avoiding unnecessary losses.
(II) Flexible use of floating storage
Floating positions are mainly used to improve short-term profitability and reduce holding costs. In the crypto market, prices fluctuate frequently, providing abundant opportunities for floating position operations.
Investors can flexibly buy and sell floating positions of cryptocurrencies according to the short-term market trend. When the market shows a short-term upward trend, they can increase floating position purchases and sell them after the price rises to a certain level to realize short-term profits.
At the same time, the operation of floating positions can also help investors reduce the cost of holding shares. For example, during the period of holding the base position, when the market falls back, the floating position can be bought in a timely manner, and the floating position can be sold after the market rebounds, thereby reducing the overall cost of holding shares.
However, it should be noted that floating position operations require investors to have strong market analysis capabilities and keen judgment, accurately grasp the short-term fluctuations of the market, and avoid increased transaction costs and greater losses due to frequent operations.
6. Key points and techniques of position control
1. Avoid missing out
Avoiding missing out is one of the key points in position control. In the crypto market, the market changes rapidly and is difficult to predict. If the position is too low due to excessive caution, valuable profit opportunities may be missed. Investors should pay close attention to market dynamics and combine technical analysis and fundamental research to judge the potential trend of the market.
For example, when there are obvious positive signals in the market, such as major policy support, technological breakthroughs, or large-scale entry of mainstream institutions, if the position is too low, it should be increased appropriately in time to seize the possible rising market. At the same time, it is necessary to maintain sensitivity to the market, not be disturbed by short-term fluctuations, and avoid missing long-term investment opportunities due to being too conservative.
However, avoiding missing out does not mean blindly chasing high prices, but strategically adjusting positions based on reasonable analysis and risk assessment.
2. Preventing full warehouse
Full position operation in the crypto market contains huge risks. When investors are fully invested, the liquidity of funds is lost. In the face of sudden changes in the market, positions cannot be adjusted in time, increasing the potential risk of loss. Especially in a highly volatile environment such as the crypto market, large price fluctuations may cause full position assets to shrink rapidly.
It is crucial to adjust your position in a timely manner. According to the different stages of the market and your personal risk tolerance, you should reasonably control your position level. For example, when the market is overheated and the valuation is too high, you can gradually reduce your position and lock in some profits; when market uncertainty increases, you can keep a certain cash position to cope with possible downside risks.
At the same time, we should avoid blindly pursuing high returns due to greed and choose to go all in. We should always maintain a sense of risk and leave room for responding to unexpected changes in the market.
