In episode 2190 of "The Joe Rogan Experience" with podcast host Joe Rogan, Silicon Valley investment tycoon Peter Thiel delves into changes in the technology field, especially the evolution of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence (AI) and their impact on Impact on the future technology landscape. Thiel started with a shift in technology conversation, contrasting the differences between decentralized cryptocurrencies and highly centralized AI, and looking ahead to where AI will develop over the next five years.
Shift in technology conversation: Cryptocurrency turns to AI
Thiel believes that the big tech topic in 2021 is undoubtedly cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency, as a decentralized alternative currency, provides financial options that are not controlled by central banks and allows technology to migrate away from traditional technology centers (such as California) and into places such as Miami. He believes the rise of cryptocurrencies is a driving force behind the natural exodus of technology from California.
However, this topic has recently been replaced by artificial intelligence. Thiel pointed out that unlike cryptocurrency, AI is an extremely concentrated field that is almost monopolized by the Bay Area’s big tech companies. This trend toward centralization is in sharp contrast to the decentralization philosophy of the past, and also makes it more difficult to escape Bay Area control.
The Bipolar Discussion of Artificial Intelligence: From Superintelligence to Surveillance Tools
Looking back at the AI discussion of the 2010s, Thiel noted that opinions at the time were largely divided into two poles. One theory of "superintelligence" proposed by Oxford professor Nick Bostrom believes that AI will eventually become a being that far exceeds human intelligence; another view comes from Kai-fu Lee's "AI Superpower", which believes that AI is mainly a low-tech surveillance tools, especially in China, are used for comprehensive surveillance.
With the arrival of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in late 2022, the direction of AI development has shifted. Thiel believes this is no longer just superintelligence or surveillance technology, but a step toward what has defined AI for the past 60 years: passing the Turing test.
Passing the Turing Test: A new milestone in AI
Thiel emphasized that passing the Turing test was once the "holy grail" of AI research, and ChatGPT seems to have achieved this achievement, at least for ordinary people, it can already make people mistakenly think it is a human. Despite this, he also admitted that the application of AI in the future still has a long way to go, and true artificial general intelligence (AGI) is still a vague concept.
He further compared the current development of AI with the dot-com bubble of 1999, arguing that although AI is a very important technology, its business model is not yet fully mature and it may take decades before it can be widely used. This does not mean that AI is not important, but it may have a profound impact on all walks of life in the future.
The paradox of technological progress: the rapid advancement of information technology and the stagnation of the physical world
Thiel said that in the past few decades, technological progress in the physical world has been relatively limited, while information technology, especially the computer field, has achieved rapid development.
He pointed out that today’s technology almost only refers to computer technology, while in the past, the scope of technology also included physical technologies such as rockets and supersonic aircraft. This shift has made it easier for people to be distracted by screens and devices, ignoring the stasis of the physical world.
The restraining force of scientific and technological progress and stagnation
When it comes to climate science, Thiel expressed his doubts about its scientific rigor: "I don't think climate science is a real science. It may have its science, but I question its scientific rigor. I I think it's more of a dogma than a rigorous science. That doesn't mean it's wrong, but it's more of a belief than a science."
He also discussed the development bottlenecks of nuclear energy, arguing that nuclear energy should have become the mainstream energy source in the 21st century, but due to its close connection with nuclear weapons, technological expansion has been restricted by geopolitics.
Thiel believes that the current stagnation in technological progress may be the result of a combination of factors. He suggests that this stagnation may be an attempt to avoid a faster transition into an accelerating and ultimately catastrophic future. He sees the current stagnation as a protective mechanism against apocalyptic or dystopian scenarios brought about by technological progress.
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This article PayPal founder Peter Thiel: The topic of encryption is no longer the topic, and the core narrative in the technology field has completely shifted to artificial intelligence (AI) first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.