In the macro aspect, the external environment is becoming more and more complex. The tension of the external environment is an important reason for the uncertainty of capital market funds. Let's take a look at the potential crisis or black swan situation in the world.
First, the tension in the Middle East has escalated. Many parties have confirmed that Iran's attack on Israel is imminent. White House officials said they are ready for a major attack that Iran may launch this week. Fitch downgraded Israel's rating from A+ to A.
Secondly, the situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war is tense. Ukraine has invaded Russia and occupied nearly 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory. 28 towns and villages are under Ukrainian control. Putin ordered the Minister of Defense to expel the enemy from Russian territory. The scale of the war may escalate, and even nuclear weapons may be used.
In addition, Trump's winning rate on polymarket has been surpassed by Harris. Harris is already leading in three important swing states. It's a bit early to see that Chuanzi's attack happened. The market is currently thinking about what Harris trade is. For us, it really doesn't matter what Harris trade is, because non-Trump trade logic is bad news!