The most concerned issue for many traders at the moment is: Is it a bull market or a bear market?

My personal opinion has not changed, and it is still a bull market.

First, let's take a look at the characteristics of a bear market. The trend of a bear market is that the high and low points continue to move downward, the price continues to break the support and the previous low, the rise is shrinking, and the fall is increasing. These can be seen at a glance from the trend of the market.

Any industry has a cycle. The current cycle of bull-bear conversion in the currency circle is about once every four years, which runs around the Bitcoin halving event. This rule has never changed.

It has been less than two years since Bitcoin hit the bottom of $15,487 in November 2022. Just like the four seasons of the year, spring, summer, autumn and winter, spring is followed by summer, and summer is followed by autumn, and then winter will come. This is a rule. It is impossible to enter winter directly after summer.

Even if there are differences in climate between the north and the south, it will not be said that there are only two seasons in a year. Some places have long winters and some places have long summers, but there will be no less than one season in the whole year.

The same is true for the cryptocurrency market. It is impossible to enter a bear market directly before the bull market is over. There will be a long period of high-level fluctuations at the end of the bull market. This stage is used by the main force to ship goods. The main force will ship goods for a long time. Direct violent market crashes will only appear on those worthless capital market coins.

From the perspective of funds, there has been a continuous inflow of funds in the cryptocurrency market through ETFs, which shows that the main force has been buying, not shipping.

The bull market will only end when retail investors enter the market crazily. At present, retail investors are not crazy, so how can the bull market end?

Compare the scene at the end of the last bull market. At that time, local dogs were flying all over the sky, and no one believed that there would be a bear market, but the bear market came quietly.

Now, emotions, market conditions, greed, all aspects have not been reached, and they do not meet the characteristics of a bear market at all, so it is not a bear market.

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