I went home after watching the IP. My wife also came from Suzhou with our two children. It was time for us to live together again. I drank alcohol before writing the night report a few days ago. Alcohol can stimulate people's emotions, but it also slows down the speed of thinking. From the perspective of writing securities articles, drinking is definitely a bad habit. But this also made me think of 20-30 years later, when I am old and my brain is not working fast, I will probably feel similar. If I feel that I can't do it, I won't write anymore.
In the past two days, many readers have left messages asking whether something big has happened on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, or whether there is a major counterattack on the Ukrainian battlefield?
There are indeed some special changes. Ukraine has taken the initiative to attack Russia's Kursk Province on the northeastern border. The size of the army is between 50 and 300 million people, and it has occupied about 500 square kilometers of Russian land. The weird saying that the Ukrainian army quickly took 27 towns is exaggerated. Many of them are just settlements with a few households. There are reports that the Ukrainian army controlled the strategic town of Sudja for fuel transmission, but the Russian side denied it.
One thing is true: the Ukrainian army is the first force to attack Russian soil in 80 years since Hitler.
It sounds exciting, but this incident cannot be interpreted as a reversal of the situation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. Although Russia was caught off guard at the beginning, it has now stabilized the front line, and it is difficult for the Ukrainian army to achieve further significant results.
My understanding is that the two sides had a strategic understanding before, that is, Ukraine did not actively attack the Russian mainland, and Russia did not have many neighboring provinces to focus on defense. Ukraine may have done this to win the sympathy of the international community, because until last month the entire war was carried out within Ukraine's borders. In addition, not actively attacking the Russian mainland may also be the intention of the boss behind it, the United States.
Now Ukraine has suddenly opened a new battlefield. The reasons behind this are complicated. It may be because of the fluctuations in the US presidential election, it may be that they want to gain bargaining chips for subsequent negotiations, or it may just be that they want to contain and mobilize Russia's troop deployment.
I am not a military expert, so I will not guess how the situation will change in the future. I can only say that based on my experience, the current changes in the situation between Russia and Ukraine have no direct impact on A-shares. If A-shares fall tomorrow, it will be for other reasons.
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1. In July, the CPI rose by 0.5% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month. The price of pork rose by 20.4% year-on-year, contributing about 0.24% to the CPI, nearly half. In addition, the prices of fresh vegetables and eggs rose by 9.3% and 4.4% respectively. In July, the peak tourist season for summer vacation, the prices of air tickets, travel and hotel accommodation rose by 22.1%, 9.4% and 5.8% month-on-month respectively.
Overall, consumption has recovered slightly, but it is not very optimistic, because while pork prices have risen, beef and mutton prices have fallen month by month, hitting a five-year low. Meat prices have a mutual effect, and the decline in beef and mutton will curb the trend of pork prices continuing to rise.
2. Pinduoduo's Huang Zheng surpassed Zhong Shanshan and became China's new richest man with $48.6 billion. It's not because Pinduoduo has been so strong recently, but mainly because the stock price of Nongfu Spring has collapsed, from 48 to 28 in the past three months, almost starting with the populist attacks on Nongfu Spring. Zhong Shanshan was interviewed on CCTV for more than an hour these two days. I didn't watch the specific content, but I think it must be part of public relations, and efforts need to be made to reverse the corporate image.
3. Zhao Xuejun, chairman of Harvest Fund, cooperated with the investigation of relevant departments due to personal issues. The most surprising thing about this matter is that according to information disclosed by American institutions, Biden Jr. once used his father's name to pressure Zhao Xuejun to fulfill a business commitment. The foreign side did not say what the specific commitment was, but the fact that a senior executive of a Chinese public fund had a dispute with the son of the US president is very thought-provoking.
4. A photo of Yu Chengdong on a plane was circulated on social media. The highlight was that he was holding a mobile phone with a tri-fold screen. Therefore, the market is discussing that Huawei may launch a new foldable screen mobile phone in the second half of the year.
The related concepts may be hyped for a while on Monday, but I don't think it will last long. Because from the first day of the invention of the folding screen, I asserted that this technology was wrong and would not sell well. The reason is very simple. The pain point of mobile phones now is not that the screen is too small. Folding screen phones have high costs, poor durability, few compatible software, fast power consumption, heavy batteries, and a lot of shortcomings. Consumers are unwilling to bear these costs for an unfolded screen. If you just pursue a large screen, folding phones have no advantages over iPads.
I dare to assert that the right direction for large screens must be peripherals similar to glasses. Although Google's glass and Apple's VR were not successful, their ideas are definitely correct.
5. The US presidential election has reversed. Harris, who succeeded Biden, is leading in the polls in three key swing states. I looked at the real-time betting forecasts and found that Harris is currently leading Trump by 51% to 48%. The US presidential election has changed too quickly. When Trump was assassinated, many media said that they could congratulate him in advance. At that time, Harris's chance of winning was less than 30%. It has reversed in just half a month.
I thought about it and the main reason is probably that people who hate Trump will continue to hate him when they see that he has not been beaten to death. So it has never been Biden vs. Trump, or Harris vs. Trump. Four years ago and now, it has always been people who hate Trump vs. people who support Trump.
6. The central bank said a lot on Friday, and the most critical one was "studying to narrow the width of the interest rate corridor", which means to narrow the interest rate gap. The so-called interest rate corridor is the difference between the deposit rate and the loan rate, which is kept at around 1% most of the time. If the corridor is to be narrowed, it will be a huge test for the profitability of banks. Let's see how the banking sector will react on Monday.
7. There is something quite surprising. Bohui shares announced that it will arrange to pay 480 million yuan in consumption tax and surcharges. This is the big fuss before about the 30-year tax payment. The company's market value is less than 2 billion, and it has to pay 480 million yuan in taxes and fees. The company stopped production at that time. Now more than a month has passed, and suddenly it said that it will pay taxes obediently. I always feel that there may be something else behind it, not just paying taxes, otherwise it will be difficult for the company to operate.
That's all.