Bitcoin
Reversal or rebound? Pay attention to the risk of secondary exploration
Yesterday, Bitcoin rebounded strongly and stood firmly above $55,000! At 2:00 this morning, it broke through the peak of $57,000. However, selling pressure surged, causing it to fluctuate slightly and fall. As of writing, Bitcoin is fixed at $56,277, up 0.84% in the past 24 hours.
BTC daily trend has recently revealed some signs of reversal! The weak penetration pattern, due to the appearance of the subsequent positive line, has undoubtedly given the market a shot of adrenaline, and the bullish force seems to be accumulating in secret. But beware, this wave of rebound may be short-lived. The current price has attracted many bargain hunters and contract traders to flock in. The market is very likely to launch a second bottoming out to clean up the follow-up orders. The risk cannot be ignored!
The current market is relatively stable, it is time to examine the market data of the rebound! The entire rebound is accompanied by a shrinking volume, and Asian funds are as stable as a mountain, and they are not moving at all. However, US funds have started to flow back to the market and have successfully retained, and the sentiment is good. The altcoins have grown significantly during the day, and the power of bottom-fishing is stronger than you can imagine!
Ethereum
Ethereum's trend is significantly weaker than Bitcoin's, and it is currently stuck in a narrow range of fluctuations at the $2,500 level. As of the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,459, down 3.12% in the past 24 hours.
Market value/proportion: The market value soared to 167 billion in one day! The increase in the market value of BTC counterfeits is like a rocket taking off, extremely significant! The growth in ETH’s market value has been slightly sluggish.
In terms of share, BTC fell slightly, while ETH increased slightly. The increase in altcoins during the day was amazing! The market risk sentiment showed a clear positive turn in the rebound after the initial bottoming out.
Trading volume: The overall market trading volume is shrinking, especially the intraday trading volume is extremely low!
However, the trading volume from the evening of the 5th to the early morning did contribute a lot, but even so, it was still significantly smaller than the trading volume on Monday. Fortunately, the market rebounded with reduced volume, which can basically be regarded as a reduction in short-term selling pressure. Overall, it is a good thing.
Funds: The stablecoin market retention has soared by 1 billion USDT! However, the market value of the data website has dropped by 204 million, and the trading volume has also dropped sharply. The official data is only 114.527 billion. Compared with yesterday's data, there is almost no change. Recently, USDT in the market has frequently re-entered after the transaction. However, from the official data, Asian and European funds have not continued to flow into the market, but have chosen to wait and see.
USDC: What is remarkable is that the market value of data websites has increased by 672 million! However, the trading volume has dropped by 24%. As far as the current situation is concerned, it can be basically concluded that the funds in the US are flowing back. Previously, a large amount of funds in the US fled the market, and after the decline, we can clearly see that the market sentiment is good during the US trading session last night. The return of funds undoubtedly proves this, but the funds are still in a state of retention and have not yet been directly invested in transactions.
US stock market performance
After the panic selling storm of the previous day, some investors decisively chose to buy at a low price. Coupled with the efforts of Federal Reserve officials and Wall Street to appease, the market's concerns about economic recession were finally relieved. The four major U.S. stock indexes finally closed higher, successfully ending the three-day decline. TSMC ADR rose 2.6%, and Nvidia soared 3%!
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 294.39 points, or 0.76%, to 38,997.66.
The S&P 500 rose 53.70 points, or 1.04%, to 5,240.03.
The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 166.78 points, or 1.03%, to close at 16,366.86.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 48.12 points, or 1.06%, to close at 4,567.57.
However, Stifel chief equity strategist Barry Bannister bluntly stated that it is too early to return to the U.S. stock market! He still firmly adheres to his prediction that the S&P 500 will fall to 5,000 points before October. The market is still mixed with bullish and bearish voices as to whether this wave of correction is over. Investors, be sure to be alert to risks!
Cryptocurrency market liquidation
In the past 24 hours, the entire network has been liquidated with nearly 176 million US dollars
According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the total amount of cryptocurrency liquidation has reached about 176 million US dollars, and more than 55,000 people have been liquidated! However, compared with yesterday's data, the situation has eased.
Brothers, the market rebound has already begun! Bitcoin and Ethereum have miraculously come back to life! How to buy at the bottom? How to operate? Which currency should I buy? But remember, don't blindly chase the rise, unless you are short! (How many friends are short?)
There may be two more negatives this week:
1. Mt. Gox token transfer and release
2. Iran's attack on Israel this week
Several major factors that support the recovery of the market:
1. Interest rate cuts are imminent, and there may be three such cuts this year
2. There may be a large amount of money released next year
3. The US government changes its cryptocurrency policy and strongly supports
4. Now that BTC and ETH have experienced three months of large turnover and washout, they are ready to go.
After the big drop, BTC rose strongly by 15% from the bottom, and many altcoins rebounded by 30%! At this time, many people can be seen shouting that 49,000 is the lowest point. But in my opinion, there is still uncertainty about this matter.
If we look at the history of BTC, we can see that there have been frequent crashes, spikes, huge trading volumes, and large-scale liquidation of contracts. From the perspective of the cryptocurrency industry, all signs seem to indicate that this is the bottom. However, this is not just a cryptocurrency issue.
This wave of decline is caused by the global asset plunge caused by the expectation of US economic recession and the Japanese yen interest rate hike. Therefore, whether BTC can stabilize is closely related to the US stock market and the global financial market.
After a day of plunging, the possibility of a direct V-reversal in the stock markets of various countries is very small, and even the probability of stabilizing at the current position is quite low. Therefore, it is too early to assert that this is the lowest point, especially when the trend of the US stock market is unclear. At the current position, nothing is absolute.
From a long-term perspective, as long as sovereign currencies continue to increase, print money, and release water, the market will inevitably rise and a bull market will inevitably come. And if the whole world and the whole society want to develop, the permanent increase and release of sovereign currencies will never stop.
Bitcoin cycle bull (halved at the end of April this year), Bitcoin ETF bull (Bitcoin ETF has been approved, and even Ethereum ETF has been approved), Bitcoin interest rate cut, money release bull (interest rate cut and money release have been confirmed to start in September, and money release is pending)
Personally, I think the low point of 49,000 is a golden pit! Even if there is a subsequent shock, as long as it falls back, friends who still have positions can enter the market in batches. If there is another sharp drop, the waterfall directly breaks through the key position of 48,934.8, even if it falls to the limit, it should be regarded as a golden pit in the bull market!
However, it should be noted that the BTC daily trend has recently revealed a hint of reversal. The slightly weak penetration pattern, due to the appearance of the subsequent positive line, has undoubtedly given the market a shot of adrenaline, suggesting that bullish forces are secretly accumulating.
However, don’t be happy too soon. This rebound may just be short-lived. The current price has attracted many bargain hunters and contract traders to flock in. The market is very likely to launch a second bottoming out to clear out the followers. The risks cannot be ignored!
The market is relatively stable now. Let's take a look at the market data of this rebound! The overall rebound is accompanied by a shrinking volume. Asian funds are as stable as a mountain, and the funds in the US area have begun to slowly flow back to the market and remain. The market sentiment is still good. The increase in the number of altcoins during the day is quite impressive, and the bottom-fishing power should not be underestimated!
Think about it, brothers! You dared to buy BTC at 70,000, but now you are scared by BTC at 50,000. Isn't this ridiculous? Even if the situation is bad, those who have funds should follow up in batches in the next few days, and boldly buy at the bottom when the market falls back, and don't panic too much. This is definitely not the beginning of a bear market, so don't let others lead you astray!
What target should I choose for bottom fishing?
This is the key issue that everyone is really concerned about! You have to have some reliable underlying assets to buy at the bottom. Otherwise, if you buy something that never rebounds and only follows the decline but not the rise, it is better not to buy at the bottom and just go short, right?
To be honest, if you want to buy at the bottom, you have to buy strong stocks, like those that have been rising or have fallen very little. This is like picking the weak ones in a fight, and looking for a big brother should be a strong one to rely on.
Mainstream coins with value: The value mentioned here is not the same as VC coins or value coins that most people talk about. Here we are referring to BTC, SOL, ETH, etc.
MEMECOIN: This refers to memes that perform strongly in exchanges, such as PEPE, BONK, WIF, etc.
What is the most correct way to buy at the bottom?
The action of bottom-fishing should be fast and the posture should be handsome. However, the most important thing is to leave yourself enough room for retreat. After all, who dares to pat his chest and guarantee that he really bottom-fished, rather than wandering halfway up the mountain?
Always emphasize bottom fishing in batches. This can at least ensure that when the market continues to fall, you still have sufficient room to support your continued bottom fishing operations.
Unless you are 100% sure that the bottom has been reached, and you have reserved some money for normal living expenses and invested all the rest of the money, I can understand this situation. After all, it's a one-shot deal, regardless of life or death, just go all in!
But the key is that everything is just speculation and guesswork, so don't be so "decisive". You know, life is not a game, there is no chance to reverse gear and start over.
For example, in the stock market, some people see that a certain stock has fallen sharply and think it is a good time to buy at the bottom, so they rush into the market with a full position, but end up finding out that they have only bought halfway up the mountain.
Or, when someone invests in real estate, they don’t invest in installments, but bet all their money at once, and as a result, the house price continues to fall, but they have no money to remedy the situation. These examples fully illustrate how important it is to be cautious and leave room for maneuver when buying at the bottom.
Summarize:
With the rebound, the volume of increase, the return of funds, and the improvement of risk appetite, the market sentiment is indeed quite optimistic from the data level. Although the decline this time is horrible, it has indeed stimulated the strong desire of many people to buy at the bottom.
However, this only reflects the sentiment of market traders. Although there is capital inflow from US traders, they still choose to wait and see. Whether it can successfully break through and usher in a key rebound still needs to be observed.
At the current stage of the market development, most of the major positions have been invested. The sharp decline the day before yesterday did not allow most people to buy at the bottom. Looking at the data that is 6 times higher than the usual trading volume, it is undoubtedly a strong proof that retail investors are selling at a loss while institutions are buying. Retail investors cannot trade at such a scale.
The more concentrated the chips are, the stronger the explosion will be. Hold on to your chips tightly and don't give them up easily. If the market rises later, you will be able to hold on all the way to the bull market!
In conclusion:
Getting rich quickly may depend on luck, but keeping wealth and achieving continuous appreciation depends on cognition. Especially when facing the macro situation, the key is to "understand the situation and wait for good news."
For example, in the previous Bitcoin market, after experiencing a sharp drop, some people sold their shares at a loss due to panic, while institutions took the opportunity to buy at a low price. Then the market rebounded, and those who held on to their chips received generous returns.
Another example is some emerging technology stocks, which were not favored at first, and the prices fell. Retail investors sold them one after another, while institutions concentrated their chips and eventually the stock prices soared. These all illustrate the importance of grasping chips and recognizing the situation in market fluctuations.
Well, that’s all for this issue for now. See you next time! If you like it, please follow us so you don’t get lost!
