July 31 Crypto Options Market Research Report

August 1st Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting, Choose the Right Time to Do More Volatility?

Coincall (No. 1 U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, and Ordi)

I. Core Views

1- Through the volatility cone, it can be seen that the short-term IV of BTC and ETH has reached below the 25th percentile. You can adopt the long gamma strategy to bet on the increase in the RV of the interest rate meeting, or long September vega is currently around the 25th percentile. If you want to further reduce the cost, add some scalping strategies. The current implied volatility is relatively suitable for opening such strategies.

2- From the term structure, it can be seen that the medium- and long-term long call option structure position is still very healthy;

3- If you still want to wait to add a long volatility position, you can observe whether the IV will further drop after the interest rate meeting; if this is the scenario, it will be a better timing point for betting on volatility.

4- The implied volatility of the copycat option is in a downward trend, and the 70 Vol of the last day option of Sol is also at a low level. Short Vol players should pay attention to position control; the implied volatility of the ordi cycle option bid 1 has also dropped to 90%

Summary: You can choose to bet on volatility long positions before and after the interest rate meeting; subjective judgment is optimistic about the market in the second half of the year; conservative players can keep more US dollar positions in terms of positions. If there is a sharp drop, add spot positions or sell put-end implied volatility

II. Option block transactions

The two largest transactions of BTC yesterday were short call spread and near-end sell covered call positions

buy BTC-27DEC24-100000-C + sell BTC-27DEC24-65000-C

sell BTC-2AUG24-70000-C

ETH The three largest transactions yesterday were as follows: long August volatility and sell short-term covered call positions

buy ETH-3AUG24-3000-P

buy ETH-3AUG24-3400-C

sell ETH-2AUG24-3350-C

Sol See Star Friends TG Group

III. Macro Market

US Stocks:

The US stock market rose slightly yesterday, and long-term US bonds were sideways waiting for the interest rate meeting. What needs to be noted yesterday is that VIX rose by 6%. If there are derivatives players who want to increase short VIX in the near future, they can choose to increase their positions. Although the overall interest rate cut cycle is high, the economic resilience is still very strong.

A shares:

Because of the objective reality of the economy and the thunder and rain in the macro narrative, market participants have actively or passively entered the spiral of the "prisoner's game".

You still need to wait patiently and do less operations.