"Central Bank Super Week" is coming! Starting this week, the central banks of the United States, Japan, Britain and other countries will announce their policy decisions one after another, and turmoil is expected to re-emerge.
At present, the market generally predicts that due to the slowdown in employment growth, FOM has been hinting at the possibility of interest rate cuts this year, and the market expects that interest rates may be cut three times this year.
At the same time, the Bank of England may make its first round of interest rate cuts in four years. Although affected by price pressures, institutions still believe that its interest rate cuts are imminent. As for other central banks, Chile will make its ninth interest rate cut to 5.5%; Pakistan expects the benchmark rate to be lowered to 19.5%, but the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates while shrinking its balance sheet, which will become another focus of the market.
The Japanese government has said that the meeting will announce details of the reduction of the monthly bond purchase plan, which is the first step in quantitative tightening. The market generally expects to reduce the purchase volume of 6 trillion yuan to 5 trillion yen and halve the purchase volume within two years. At the same time, about 30% of experts regard interest rate hikes as the basic situation.
This is also due to the recent continuous rise of the yen, which has become the "storm center" of the global economy. If the interest rate hike fails to materialize, especially if the central bank's bond purchase plan cannot be reduced as scheduled, then the yen short arbitrage plan may reappear.
Another focus of the market is the interest rate cut of fomc. The market currently expects that action will not be taken until September. This is also because the long-term high interest rate has led to a cumbersome process for interest rate cuts, and more and more comprehensive data are needed as references. Therefore, it is even more important to release employment data simultaneously this week. One is the job vacancy and resignation data on Tuesday, and the other is the non-agricultural report released on Friday, which may become the basis for interest rate cuts.