VanEck: Bitcoin is expected to reach 50 million by 2050
VanEck, a well-known asset management company, recently issued spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum. It published a long report on Wednesday (7/24) predicting that the basic price of Bitcoin in 2025 will be US$2.9 million, and in a bull market scenario it will be even higher. It is expected to exceed US$50 million.
As of the time of writing today, Bitcoin is quoted at only US$67,000. To reach the target of US$2.9 million or US$50 million, it means that it will have to rise another 42 times and 745 times. For current investors, it is really difficult to imagine.
However, VanEck’s report believes that due to rising geopolitical tensions and the expanding debt repayment costs of major countries, Bitcoin is expected to become an important component of the international monetary system in the future.
The agency predicts that by 2025, the U.S. dollar’s proportion in the international currency composition will decline to 38.4%, while the proportion of Bitcoin, RMB and other legal currencies will rise to 23%, of which Bitcoin will account for 2.5%.
Source: VanEck
VanEck predicts the composition of the international monetary system in 2050
The benefits of Bitcoin as a reserve currency
VanEck noted that not many emerging market countries are confident enough in their financial prospects to justify inclusion in reserve currencies, and some may turn to China and other developing economies to hold reserve currencies. But many countries unhappy with poor reserve options may be inclined to hold Bitcoin because it solves many pain points.
The benefits of holding Bitcoin reserves are as follows: no need for trust, neutrality, unchanged monetary policy, and complete property rights. The purpose of Bitcoin is to replace fiat currency and significantly improve the current monetary system. Its system and its fundamental logic that cannot be changed replace corrupt centralized human power.
VanEck believes that whether it is a national government or ordinary people, the Bitcoin framework allows anyone to hold and trade without being completely blocked by middlemen. Holders do not have to worry about an entity diluting the value of Bitcoin or exploiting Bitcoin. coins to advance political goals or encourage Bitcoin abusers.
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2050
VanEck also predicted several target prices for Bitcoin in 2050. This prediction is based on the following conditions: Bitcoin has become an important part of the international monetary system, 2.5% of central bank assets use Bitcoin as a store of value, and 3 Key components to estimate:
Local and international trade GDP settled in Bitcoin
Bitcoin active circulating supply
Bitcoin velocity
The estimated results are as follows:
Bitcoin base price in 2050: $2,910,345
Bitcoin bear market price in 2050: $130,314
Bitcoin bull market price in 2050: $52,386,207
Source: VanEck
Bitcoin Price Prediction 2050
Bitcoin’s prospects are good, but there are risks
VanEck noted that Bitcoin has been around for more than 15 years and has shown remarkable resilience through multiple economic cycles. However, despite the promising prospects, Bitcoin still has several major risks:
Sustainability of Bitcoin Mining: By 2050, the implied electricity demand for Bitcoin mining is expected to be 15% of projected global electricity generation.
Miner economics fail: The market needs to continue to buy Bitcoin in large quantities to offset miner selling, and miners must bear fixed and variable costs. With fewer Bitcoins available to be mined, demand for Bitcoin must continue to be driven to cope with the sell-off.
Bitcoin cannot continue to scale: If Bitcoin fails to become a significant medium of exchange because it does not scale enough, then the core argument for its meteoric rise will be invalidated.
Replacement by Other Competing Cryptocurrencies: Ethereum has considered Ethereum ($ETH) the currency of its ecosystem, and it is competing with Bitcoin whether it is recognized or not.
The Bitcoin community is divided: The Bitcoin community may have great differences on how to make it sustainable, and the community may eventually be divided, leading to more hard forks and splitting the value of Bitcoin.
Catastrophic changes in Bitcoin's monetary policy: If Bitcoin suddenly changes its core mechanism and maintains it through new "taxes" such as inflation, it may seriously affect Bitcoin's monetary policy.
Government Bans and Attacks: While governments cannot completely prevent people from using Bitcoin, increasing crackdowns could undermine its long-term potential.
Predation by oligarchic financial entities: If the amount of Bitcoin held by large financial institutions reaches a majority of the supply, it may put it at risk of being controlled by governments and institutions.
Theft and Hacking: There are many Bitcoin-related hacking attacks, which mainly involve breaking into centralized institutions that hold large amounts of Bitcoin.
Hyper-financialized attacks: For example, a malicious entity buys all Bitcoin mining machines, shorts them, and then shuts down the mining machines.
Core software failure: For example, due to the development of quantum computing, Bitcoin's current cryptography has become insecure and easily cracked, and its cryptographic scheme must be upgraded to cope with the rise of quantum computing.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. Analyst opinions are for reference only. Users should refer to more diverse indicators to judge whether to invest, and consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
