Question 1: Which cycle do you think we are in now?

Question 2: What other information can you get from the historical trend of the K-line in the chart?

Question 3: Do you think the fourth Bitcoin halving in 2024 may happen in a bull market?

The following figure is an analysis of Bitcoin’s K-line from 2011 to Q4 2022

In another set of data, there are 10 monthly k-lines in Bitcoin from 2013 to 2022, of which 8 closed positive and 2 closed negative. Bitcoin's rise percentage in October every year is 80% and the fall percentage is 20%. The same question is, what are the same or similar macro backgrounds and market backgrounds that you can find from the rising months and the falling months?