Bitcoin halving every four years basically determines the boom and bust cycle of the cryptocurrency market. The next Bitcoin halving will occur at block 840,000, which is about 300 days away from today.
当下一次 2024 年比特币减半日期到来时，比特币减半将挖矿区块奖励从 6.25枚比特币减少到3.125枚比特币。预测下一次比特币减半将在世界标准时2024 年 4 月 27 日星期六下午 05:03:39 发生。具体时间会因挖矿难度因素而产生1到2天的误差。
The halving took place on November 12, 2012, and it took 92 days to reach the highest point in the market.
2016年7月9日减半，历时180天到达行情最高点。
2020年5月11日减半，历时204天到达行情最高点。
预测：2024 年4月27日减半，历时240天到达行情最高点。将于2024年12月27日左右来到行情的峰值。
不难看出，随着时间的推移，每一次减半后到达行情的最高点都在延长这个时间。道理也很简单，就是市场需要增加的资金量在呈指数型增加。
The wavelet market in 2023 is the epitome of the future bull market. How it goes this year also plays an important reference role in predicting the future bull market.
首先，牛市启动，比特币先飞，跌得惨的主流币先翻个倍。
其次，比特币表演一段时间后，以太坊开启一路狂飙。
再次，比特币横盘，山寨跟随以太坊演疯魔症。
接着，土狗乱飞，加密市场疲软。
再接着，NFT牛市，庞氏链游牛市。
最后，崩盘，山寨归零，熊市轮回。
All investors in the currency circle now believe that the cryptocurrency market will be a bull market in 2025. Some friends in the group said that they all believe that 2025 will be a bull market, and then the bull market will not come. No one knows when the bull market will come, and no one needs to know, but we do know that it will come back one day. There is a high probability that the currency circle’s feast will not be on time next time.
The cryptocurrency market has been in a bear market for a year. Bitcoin fell from 69,000 US dollars to more than 15,000 US dollars. More copycats fell more than 90%. They began to rebound on January 1. Bitcoin has risen to about 31,000 US dollars today. , up nearly 100%, and more copycats are rising wildly. This is a barbaric, crazy and unregulated market, where innovation and deception coexist, where value and bubbles fly together. Capital flows to places with stories, futures and returns. Digital currency blockchain, Bitcoin and Ethereum definitely have a future. Valuable applications are by no means tulip bubbles.
Based on years of Bitcoin trend patterns combined with the US dollar liquidity cycle, Bitcoin production is halved every four years to match the US dollar's easing, which is exactly four years of bull and bear changes, halving in 12 years, 16 years, 20 years, and 24 years. Started before and after, 13 years, 17 years, 21 years, and 25 years are all the years when the bull market ends. The last two rounds of rising points are highly consistent with the US dollar's quantitative easing of interest rates. After the epidemic in 20 years, the US dollar's quantitative easing, digital currencies began a crazy bull market. Years 2014, 2018, 22, and 26 were all big bear markets. The timing of the bull-bear reversal was highly consistent with the U.S. dollar’s cycle of raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet. Therefore, a rising tide lifts all boats. Prices are driven by capital, and only when liquidity is rampant can there be madness. ox.
熊市种下种子，接下来交给时间，只要种子选得对，收获只是时间为问题。牛市容易产生幻觉，认为币圈捡钱，其实并不是，很多挣钱的，往往都是熊市播下的种，牛市是收获的季节，不适合播种，不过很多人没明白，牛市亏钱自然是常态。
估计还要有一年左右新的一轮牛市才会到来，现在熊市后半段，只要暴涨后都会阴跌，币圈从来都是一个彻彻底底的投机场所，千万别用投资思维来做，那会死的很惨，因为99%的数字货币最终都会走向归零。
The cryptocurrency market is a market that eats people and creates myths. It is a paradise for speculators and a hell for gamblers. The 24/7 trading time is addictive, and the 100 times leverage is even more crazy. One day in the currency circle is one year in the human world. One thought succeeds and the other fails.
From another perspective, how deep can Bitcoin fall in each bear market?
2015 bear market, down 6.5 times from high to low:
2018 bear market, down 5.9 times from high to low:
Both bear market declines were 6 times. If the bear market in 2022 remains the same, then the bottom should be around $10,000 after falling 6 times from the high of $67,000.
This round of bear market is obviously different from the previous two rounds of bear market. It feels like it has not fallen completely. Because of the intervention of national teams from El Salvador, Central Africa, Dominica, and other countries around the world, as well as the intervention of MicroStrategy, a listed company on the US stock market, and Meitu, a company listed on the Hong Kong stock market, when the Bitcoin bear market fell, they bought and bought, which raised the price of Bitcoin. low price.
Now, on June 20, 2023, the EDX Markets centralized exchange, led by American superteams such as Castle Securities, Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab, and participated by large Wall Street institutions, was officially launched.
Also on June 22, 2023, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management company, applied to launch a Bitcoin spot ETF.
The entry of BlackRock and the launch of the EDX centralized exchange are the preliminary work done by large American institutions to enter the currency circle. The entire cryptocurrency market is essentially a market driven by incremental funds. Large American institutions only need to use 2% of their funds to enter the market. The price of Bitcoin will soar immediately, and the four-year cycle of bull and bear markets in the cryptocurrency market will immediately disappear. If it breaks through, the monthly and annual cycle of currency holdings will have no reference value at all.
However, large American institutions will not intervene at will and suddenly change the bull-bear cycle. Large institutions have large amounts of funds and are slow to enter and exit the market. There must be compliance issues before entering the market, as well as preliminary preparation work. After entering the market, there will inevitably be an ambush in the bottom area, the action of pumping up shipments and smashing the market. Only after the market is smashed and large institutions get enough chips at the bottom, a new round of institutional bull market will return.
