Survey shows that the Fed may have less room to cut interest rates in 2024, and GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised

According to TechFlow, on November 22, the latest survey of Jinshi Data showed that due to inflationary pressure and the impact of Trump's potential policies, the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts in 2024 may narrow.

The core PCE price index is expected to rise 2.3% next year, up 0.1 percentage point from last month, according to the survey. Economists expect the federal funds rate to remain in the range of 3.25% to 3.5% in 2025.

At the same time, the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 was raised to 2% from the previous 1.8%, and the probability of a recession remained at 25%, the lowest since March 2022.