The Bitcoin market has been fluctuating slightly recently. Although the bulls have the intention to rebound, the momentum is not strong enough. In my opinion, the risk of a downward breakthrough will increase after the bulls' energy is further consumed. Everyone needs to pay attention to the support level of $25,300. If it breaks, it may drop to the support area of $23,500-24,000. In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on high altitude, but be cautious. #BTC
Some people believe that the current bear market is the longest in history, but the terms bull market and bear market are actually subjective and have no clear definition. This ambiguity has led to various arguments, but they are meaningless. Investors generally refer to the trend since Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $69,000 on November 10, 2021 as a "multi-year bear market," which has lasted 659 days. However, there have been longer bear markets in history, such as from November 2013 to January 2017, when the price of Bitcoin was below its previous high of $1,000 for 37 consecutive months (about 1,125 days). For another example, after Bitcoin first reached $20,000 in December 2017, it entered a "bear market" that lasted 1,095 days. $BTC
But if you look at it from another perspective, maybe Bitcoin is not in a bear market at all. Some studies believe that a bear market can only be identified when a market index or asset falls by more than 20% relative to its recent high. According to Coingecko data, Bitcoin's most recent high was around $31,400 in mid-July 2023. Based on the current price, Bitcoin's decline is only about 13%.
Back to the market trend, after the bear market ends, the market in the early stage of the bull market is usually very volatile. As you can see, the decline last Friday triggered a sharp drop in the Bitcoin market, returning to the starting position and forming a real support level. This market mainly hits user contracts. We have mentioned before that this market that takes advantage of short-term positive stimulus will not last and cannot change the essential trend of the market. Therefore, what we should worry about now is the shock adjustment, which will mainly focus on adjustment in September and gradually accumulate strength. After October, the market may gradually gain strength and usher in a wave of obvious rising prices.
Next, we need to focus on some important events this week. This week starts with a US holiday, which may affect trading volume. Also this week, ECB President Lagarde will give a speech, and investors will pay close attention to her insights on the European economic outlook. In addition, the integration of CYBER and OpBNB will also take place this week, which may trigger volatility in the cryptocurrency space. Baby Doge Coin enthusiasts are also eagerly awaiting the announcement of a new artificial intelligence project.
On Tuesday, September 5, we will see the release of China’s composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, which previously came in at 51.3 and is closely watched for signs of economic activity. At the same time, we will also get a look at the Eurozone’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to be -7.8%, down from -3.4% previously. This data could shed some light on inflationary pressures facing the Eurozone, with possible implications for the cryptocurrency market.
On Wednesday and Thursday, macroeconomic developments will intensify. On September 6, the US Services PMI data will be released, which is expected to be 51, slightly lower than the previous 52.3. On the same day, the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release PMI data, which is expected to be 52.5, slightly lower than the previous 52.7. In addition, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book, which provides information on the current economic conditions in various regions. Fed official Logan will also make a statement to share their views on economic issues, which may affect the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market. #美联储是否加息？
On Thursday, Eurozone GDP data will be released, which is expected to be 0.6%, down from 1.1% previously, showing continued challenges for the Eurozone economy. Meanwhile, we also need to pay attention to the US unemployment benefits data, which is expected to be 235,000, slightly higher than the previous 228,000. This is an important indicator of the health of the labor market. Finally, Fed officials Williams and Bowman will discuss important economic issues, and their remarks may affect the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market.
We will also have some important data to keep an eye on this weekend. On Saturday, China will release inflation data, which is expected to be 0.1%, slightly higher than the previous -0.3%. These data will tell us their impact on the cryptocurrency market.
In short, the Bitcoin market is currently volatile and its future trend is uncertain. Investors need to be cautious and operate according to market dynamics.
