Since June 19, wallets related to the German government have frequently transferred large amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges and market makers such as Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp for sale. This is considered to be one of the main reasons for the recent continuous decline in Bitcoin, in addition to the Mt. Gox exchange's repayment. The on-chain data tracking platform Arkham issued a statement in the early morning of today (13) stating that the Bitcoin balance of the German government's related addresses has been cleared. According to Lookonchain monitoring data, all 50,179 Bitcoins (about US$3.3 billion) held by the German government have been liquidated in 24 days. After the news of the liquidation of the German government came out in the early morning of today, perhaps due to the related selling pressure, BTC, which once broke through US$58,527 in the early morning, fell 2.36% in two hours, reaching a low of US$57,144. As of the time of writing, it has rebounded to US$57,832, an increase of 1.09% in the past 24 hours. Some people pointed out that the impact of the German government on the market has gradually eased, and Bitcoin's current decline may have bottomed out. However, Yu Jin, an on-chain data analyst, reminded that attention should be paid to the selling pressure caused by the repayment of Mt. Gox. He said earlier today: "Next, the market should focus on the situation in Mt. Gox."
The current crypto market is at a turning point in history. Bitcoin has great potential, and market fluctuations are only temporary adjustments. So, where will the crypto market go next? The current market stage is more like a "bear trap"
This round of bull market has not ended yet. The current market stage is more like a "bear market trap". The real big bull market has not yet arrived. Here we assume that EMA200 is used as a reference indicator, and the breakthrough of the 200-day line is regarded as a "bull market" and the fall below the 200-day line is regarded as a "bear market". We will find that since Bitcoin broke through EMA200 again in January last year (2023), it has also experienced a long period of correction. For example, after breaking through EMA200 in August last year, it experienced more than two months of adjustment and then rebounded again. As shown in the figure below. And since October last year, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively good upward trend and has broken through ATH (historical high price). But after falling below EMA200 again last week, many people did show panic and disappointment in the market. As far as the overall situation is concerned, the next adjustment may continue for some time (maybe until September). During this period, for ordinary retail investors, we only recommend the following two things: First, if you have not started to build a position or have a plan to build a position, then during this period you can consider buying and accumulating some Bitcoin in batches (note that it is in batches). Second, as Bitcoin enters the correction phase, the volatility of altcoins will become larger. Pay attention to reasonably assess your own risk tolerance and focus only on those altcoins with strong narrative ability. If you are already fully invested and are still considering whether to sell and withdraw part of the principal, my personal opinion is that as long as you are not holding the kind of dog that may return to zero (or has returned to zero) at any time, you might as well continue to wait patiently for 1-2 months and observe. Although there are many negative factors at this stage, such as the German government's sale of Bitcoin and MtGox's compensation, there are still some potential positive factors that deserve our attention, such as: - The US presidential election. Judging from Trump's recent words and deeds and performance, if Trump can win the US presidential election, it may trigger a sharp rise in cryptocurrencies. We will not involve any political issues here. - The Fed's interest rate cut. Considering the current situation, it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. If the rate cuts can be officially started on September 18, in the longer term, it is possible that all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, will enter a new bull market.- ETF inflows. ETF inflows have turned positive again in recent days, with major institutions such as Blackrock still taking advantage of the market's panic to buy on dips.
As for what will happen in the next two months of correction, it is difficult to determine at present, but from a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still a very strong support level at $50,000-52,000. If there is no new special event, it should be difficult to break below in the short term. But once it breaks below, the next range may fall to around $44,000-46,000. And I still say that if such an extreme situation as the above really occurs, then don't hesitate, just continue to buy in batches. Perhaps, in another year, when you look back on the current market, you will feel the same as you do now when you look back on the market in August and September last year. Compared with Bitcoin, which is currently in the correction stage, although the altcoin has fallen a lot, it is still possible that a 10%-20% retracement may continue in the next 1-2 months. So we said earlier that at this stage, we should pay attention to reasonably assess our own risk tolerance and only focus on those altcoin projects with strong fundamentals and narrative ability. In addition to core assets such as ETH and SOL, you can consider adding a few popular narrative head projects to enrich your investment portfolio: Here we randomly list a few examples from a technical perspective to help you find your direction (not investment advice): For example: Ondo Finance (ONDO)
Ondo Finance is a project in the RWA field. It is currently cultivating protocols that can support tokenized real-world assets and traditional cryptocurrencies. It is also the first project (company) to tokenize U.S. Treasury bond exposure. Since the project's token ONDO was officially launched in January this year (2024), the price has risen about 10 times to ATH. The current market value of the project is US$1.435 billion, Market Cap / FDV = 0.14, Market Cap / TVL = 2.58. Judging from the chart, around 0.85 seems to be a good short-term support position, as shown in the figure below. Of course, the project will have a new round of large-scale unlocking next year, which also needs to be paid attention to. As shown in the figure below. Another example: Ronin (RON)
Ronin is a project in the GameFi field. It is an Ethereum sidechain built by Sky Mavis, the developer of Axie Infinity, and supports smart contracts and protocols compatible with EVM. The project's token RON was launched in 2022. After a bear market, the price rose from a low of around 0.2 to 4.45 and broke through the historical high. It has now pulled back to around 1.9, and Market Cap / FDV = 0.34. From the chart, it seems that the adjustment is basically in place at this stage, as shown in the figure below. Of course, the token is also being unlocked continuously. Don't forget to use the Token Unlocks tool to pay attention to its real-time linear unlocking. The above are just two random examples. The main idea is to find projects that are in line with popular narratives (or your most optimistic track), have no major problems with fundamentals, and have basically pulled back from the chart. But if your risk appetite is not high, then when the new short-term trend of the market is not clear, you can keep your existing position unchanged and wait for Bitcoin to return to the position above EMA200 before considering whether to add positions. In short, we will remain optimistic about the development of the market in the long term, and we believe that the big bull market (the peak of this round of bull market) has not yet arrived. In the current stage of market panic, you should not panic, but maintain the necessary greed and be ready to buy at any time. Those who have not experienced darkness and challenges cannot welcome the real light, and those who have experienced light will be able to see the light.
