As of the time of writing, the current price of BTC is around 27420. As Grayscale won the lawsuit against the SEC, the market generally realized that the rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum has begun to appear. However, it should be noted that although Grayscale won, it does not mean that its conversion into a Bitcoin spot ETF is 100% certain. In fact, the reasons put forward by Grayscale in the lawsuit are not sufficient to support its conversion application, so the SEC still needs to re-examine this application instead of directly approving it.
In short, even though the SEC lost the case, they still need to re-approve Grayscale's Bitcoin spot ETF application, and may even ask for more sufficient reasons. Although this is good news for Grayscale, it does not mean that the approval has been completed, nor does it mean that the approval will be completed soon, and there is no guarantee that it will be approved. Especially considering the SEC's usual style, it may continue to delay the approval, or even postpone it multiple times.
Although we have sorted out this issue, we need to be clear that despite the good news, this does not mean that the approval has been passed, nor can it be guaranteed to be passed quickly, or even 100% guaranteed to be finally passed. However, the narrative of Bitcoin and Ethereum has indeed changed now, and Grayscale's opportunity is clearly ahead. However, given the SEC's style, they may continue to postpone the approval multiple times. In this case, friends still need to remain vigilant and recognize the risks.
In summary: it is good news, indeed it is good news, but it does not mean that it has been approved now, nor does it mean that it will be approved soon, or even that it will definitely be approved.
Judging from the current market, the general trend is still bearish, because even if the ETF application is approved, it will only bring a wave of emotional fluctuations, and under the current global economic tension, the crypto market has not yet met the conditions for turning from a bear market to a bull market. The approval of the ETF will at most affect the arrival time of the market's bear market bottom.
Trend Direction:
Although the general trend is still bearish, the short-term and this week's trend may change. The market's bullish trend will depend on the evolution of sentiment after Grayscale's victory and the results of ETF applications from several institutions this Friday. If these applications are delayed, the short-term bull market may be basically over. But if there are some possibilities that lead to the approval of the application, the short-term bullish sentiment may continue to be released.
Trading straregy:
Considering the current situation of the market, both long and short trading is relatively difficult. Yesterday's rise was completely stimulated by the news, but this situation is usually suppressed by negative news, so both long and short positions should set a stop loss. In the early morning of yesterday, there was not much emotion in the European and American trading, which is quite abnormal. If the market cannot rise above 28,000 again in the early morning today, the bullish trend may end. However, I personally think that this Friday will be a key node, and the results of the non-agricultural data and ETF resolution may bring a greater market crisis. Long orders at low levels in the 27,000-28,000 range, wait for the high to judge whether it can break through the previous high before choosing shorts. The market in this range will become the focus in this week's trading.