After Germany sold its bitcoins, Mentougou also officially began to compensate victims. They hold about 100,000 bitcoins waiting to be distributed to creditors. These bitcoins have not been actually distributed in the past few years. On the evening of July 5, Mentougou began to transfer bitcoins to creditors one after another. As creditors receive bitcoins, it is expected that some people will choose to sell them, which will bring certain pressure to the market. This is undoubtedly worse than before when the market is already fragile.
Several aspects worth noting:
1. **Compensation activities in Mentougou are still ongoing**: It may take 90 days for the compensation to be completed, that is, until mid-October. During this period, there may be a small rebound, but a large rebound is unlikely. Therefore, do not be too aggressive in going long and remain cautious.
2. **Funds look for low points to buy**: Stablecoin prices on exchanges began to rebound, and ETF funds also began to buy in large quantities. This shows that the market is still confident in the future, but patience is needed in the short term.
3. **Global macro policies and the prospects of the Fed's rate cut**: We are currently on the eve of the Fed's rate cut. After the Mentougou incident is resolved, global macro policies may be greatly loosened, which will promote the start of a new round of bull market. As long as there is no contract explosion, once the bull market starts, it may only take a few weeks. Therefore, now is the time to hold the currency and wait patiently. If the market falls by more than 10%, you can look for low points to buy in batches; don't panic and sell at the bottom, hold on, and the turnaround is coming.
Someone asked me if the bull market is still continuing?
**The conclusion is that the bull market is definitely continuing**. From the perspective of technical indicators, although Bitcoin has fallen below the bull-bear dividing line, some people believe that it has entered a bear market, but this is only the appearance of technical indicators.
Usually, the bull market of Bitcoin occurs within 6-12 months after the halving, but this round may be delayed by 6-18 months, and may not start until the end of the year at the latest. The selling pressure in Mentougou (141,687 Bitcoins) is equivalent to the output of Bitcoin in one year (about 164,250 Bitcoins). This selling pressure will not end the bull market, but it may delay the arrival of the bull market. Similar selling pressure has occurred before, such as the massive sell-off of 190,000 Bitcoins in China in 2020.
Historical data also shows that it took eight months for Bitcoin to reach a new high after the halving on July 9, 2016, and seven months after the halving on May 11, 2020. Currently, Bitcoin has fallen 27% from its peak. From the current perspective, it is normal for the bull market to start at the end of the year or next year. Bitcoin's strongest support level is $57,200, and it may experience a period of struggle at this stage.
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