The decline is a real decline, and the breakout is a real breakout.
2024/7 Share:
The good news is that, as expected, the daily line rebounded; the bad news is that the rebound was very weak and turned back to the first position. At present, the short structure of the weekly line has been confirmed, and it is expected to be a weekly/monthly level correction. The basic logic is: 1. From the beginning of last year's wave to the breakthrough of the historical high, the monthly line has a long structure, which is expected to continue; 2. From the outbreak to now, the weekly and daily lines have reached the most ideal target range, but there has been no reasonable correction.
Some time ago, there was an expectation of going sideways before the breakout, but the weekly short structure has already occurred. Comprehensive evaluation shows that the target position and the reasonable correction range have a high degree of overlap. (Refer to Figure 2)
So the following two suggestions are given: 1. In the short term, high-altitude trading is the main method when the target range is not reached; friends who have short orders at the top can lock in profits or stop all profits in several price ranges in the figure, and make their own judgments based on their entry positions and expectations; 2. Friends who are waiting for spot bottom-fishing should start to layout spot at price positions with relatively more overlapping lines/ranges. For specific operations, please refer to my article sharing.
Trading is not a simple guessing game. If you do it for a long time, if you are good at summarizing and learning, you will know when you can only go to the left and when you can only go to the right, how much position you should take in which position, and what you should do when events occur. The essence of trading is to do things within your cognition to gamble on high-probability events.
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