What is the connection between the first year of the “Juglar Cycle” in 2023, the US dollar tide, and BTC?

We talked about the Kondratieff cycle before. Wealth in life depends on Kondratieff. The interaction between yin and yang reveals all kinds of phenomena. All things in the world grow naturally and follow a cyclical pattern. Everything fluctuates in cycles, and the economy is no exception.

We are now at the turning point of the Juglar cycle, which lasts for ten years. It is also the node of the movement of the opposite. Any thing, any phenomenon, any state will not exist in a fixed pattern forever. Everything is temporary, and it is fluctuating in the process of renewal. All we have is the present moment.

The late cycle king Zhou Jintao was quite knowledgeable about Kondratieff cycles. He successfully escaped the 2015 stock market crash. Before his death, he also predicted that 2019 would be the first opportunity for those born in the 1990s to change their lives. From 2019 to 2021, there will be a bull market in core assets for more than two years.

Among these cycles, the ones that are more closely related to our stock market investment are the Juglar cycle of about ten years and the Kitchin cycle of about four years. Let's look at the stock index. The 998 points in 2005 is definitely an important node. Counting from this node, 95 years is exactly 512 points in January 1996. Since the lowest point of the Shenzhen Component Index occurred in that month, although the lowest point of the Shanghai Composite Index occurred in July 1994, it was only a two-month pulse market. The real bull market started in January 1996. Therefore, January 1996 is also an important node. The two nodes span 113 months, which is exactly 9 and a half years of the Juglar cycle.

The bull market that started in the second half of 2014, which lasted for 9 years from 2005, happened to be a Juglar cycle. This may seem like a coincidence, but behind it is the irreversible law of economic operation.

The dollar tide harvests the world's laws

In the 1970s and 1980s, Latin America experienced debt and economic crises.

In the early 1990s, the Japanese bubble crisis broke out.

In 1997, the Asian financial crisis broke out.

In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States.

Combined with the following figure, large-scale harvests have occurred three times in history

The first was the Latin American crisis in the late 1970s and 1980s. Resource-rich countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Chile developed rapidly in the 1970s using capital injected by the United States, forming the "Latin American myth". However, starting in 1979, as the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates, Latin American countries with a single industrial structure and a large amount of US dollars fell into debt difficulties. On the verge of bankruptcy, they could only sell their high-quality assets under the coercion of "creditors". Mines, oil fields, and plantations were taken over by multinational groups led by the United States at a price of a few tenths or even one percent. The wealth accumulated over 20 years was plundered in a few years, and the Latin American myth disappeared from then on.

The second time was in Japan from the mid-to-late 1980s to the 1990s. At that time, Japan, which ranked second in the world in terms of GDP and was still growing rapidly, finally made the United States show its fangs: the "Plaza Accord" in 1985 and the "Louvre Accord" in 1987 forced the yen to appreciate, opened up trade restrictions, and allowed the Japanese asset bubble to expand rapidly until the bubble burst in 1991, ushering in Japan's "lost thirty years."

The third was the Asian financial crisis in the mid-to-late 1990s. At that time, the "Four Little Dragons" and "Four Little Tigers" developed rapidly with the help of American capital, especially the "Four Little Tigers", which had a very high debt-based development ratio, but they did not think there was any problem. It was not until the end of 1994 and the beginning of 1995 that the financial crisis first broke out in Southeast Asia as the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates. The "Four Little Tigers" of Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia were all wiped out; then the financial crisis swept East Asia. Hong Kong escaped the blockade of international capital because it adhered to the US dollar reserve system, had abundant foreign exchange reserves, and had the support of the Chinese government behind it, but Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and Japan all suffered heavy losses. Samsung, which is familiar to everyone, was controlled by Americans for most of its shares during this crisis. Judging from the proportion of profits, it is not an exaggeration to say that Samsung is an American company.

What is the direct relationship between the Juglar cycle and Bitcoin? For now, there is no strong relationship.

But let's look at a set of data

From the bottom in 2015 to the top in 2017, the weekly chart is about 152 bars, 1064 days (about 3 years)

From the bottom in 2018 to the top in 2021, the weekly chart is about 151 bars, or 1060 days (about 3 years)

From the 2017 high to the 2021 high: about 204 weekly bars, 1428 days. (about 4 years)

From the 2018 bottom to the 2022 bottom: about 205 weekly bars, 1435 days. (about 4 years)

In addition, the halving of Bitcoin every four years is also an important driving factor.

A Juglar cycle is about 10 years, and according to the historical trend of Bitcoin, a bull-bear cycle lasts for 4 years, which means that Bitcoin has two cycles, and the cycle is shorter and the profit effect is greater. Do you understand?

If you like my point of view, please like, comment and share, let's go through the bull and bear markets together!!!