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7.3 Bitcoin Ethereum short position profit stop

7.1 Bitcoin Ethereum short position profit

In the first half of 2024, the trend of Bitcoin can be described as magnificent. Starting from the opening price of 42,000 in January, after a round of retracement to 38,600 for confirmation, Bitcoin rebounded strongly and rose to 73,800, with a maximum increase of more than 50%. This wave of market is not unfamiliar to readers who have been following me for a long time. I clearly pointed out the bullish view near 42,000 before the New Year, and after breaking through 73,000 in March, I promptly reminded everyone that I saw the top callback signal. From April to June, Bitcoin tested several times between 71,000 and 72,000, and carried out two bottom-fishing operations in the range of 60,000 to 57,000. During this period, the long-term long-short game was extremely fierce, but above 71,000, it was mainly based on the air line, and below 60,000, it was mainly based on the short-handed long, and the strategy was tried and tested.

However, entering the second half of the year, I began to be cautious about the bullish attitude near 60,000. I think that Bitcoin may fall below the previous low of 56,500 in the near future. Although I have made the general direction clear, I will update the intraday short-term wave band suggestions every day, and my short-term order winning rate is also quite high.

Since June, Bitcoin has entered a continuous oscillating decline after a high fall. In the range of 72,000 to 58,400, although there were some rebounds in the middle, these rebounds were not reversals. The high point of each rebound was falling, and after the rebound, there was a new round of decline. Therefore, our operation strategy since June 6, that is, short-term and long-term, has achieved fruitful results. For this, you can refer to my articles in the past six months and you will understand it.

At 21:30 last night, Fed Chairman Powell delivered a speech. He affirmed the cooling of inflation and believed that inflation was moving in the expected direction. As long as the next employment data can be confirmed, the road to interest rate cuts is not far away. However, Powell did not say much about the issue of interest rate cuts and basically avoided talking about it. But at the end of his speech, he mentioned that it might take until 2025 for inflation to drop to 2%, and emphasized that more economic data is needed to support this judgment.

First, we will focus on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 29, which will be released at 20:30 tonight. The previous value of the data was 233,000, and the forecast value was 235,000. If the number of unemployed people deviates significantly from the previous value and expectations, it will inevitably cause large fluctuations in the market.

Secondly, the minutes of the Fed's June meeting will be released at 2 a.m. This data is undoubtedly of great importance. From Powell's speech last night, it can be felt that the minutes are optimistic about the decline in inflation, that is, a neutral stance. This is in sharp contrast to the "hawkish" attitude in May.

These two data will be released one after another. Will they completely break the support of the 60,000 to 58,000 area? From a technical point of view, this possibility is very high. After all, this is also my recent point of view. Then, we will wait for the non-agricultural data in June to determine the direction and completely end this year's bull market and enter adjustment and shock. The next bull market may have to wait until 2025 after the Fed cuts interest rates!

My personal opinion is as follows:

After Bitcoin hit a new high in March, the monthly line failed to reach a high in the 71,000 to 72,000 area for three consecutive months, and closed with an upper shadow line, and the high point gradually declined. The weekly line also formed an M-top pattern, with an obvious death cross and an obvious bearish trend. I pointed out two months ago that the large-scale weekly and monthly lines have turned to a bearish trend.

At present, the market still relies on the area below 60,000 to form support, which is the key point of bullish defense and the last psychological defense line of bulls. Yesterday, I also mentioned that now there is only one bad news, which may completely break through the 60,000 area. At that time, bulls will flee everywhere and the market will fall into chaos.

If the meeting minutes released at 2 a.m. are hawkish, Bitcoin may continue to accelerate through the regional support of 60,000 to 58,000, triggering another decline. Let's look at Friday's non-farm data. Once the market starts, there will basically be no chance for latecomers to get on board. When negative news forms and causes a break below the support, the bulls will not even have time to jump out of the car. Same name contraction Public account: Li Hong trend, profit space is controlled by yourself, and the trading plan is strictly implemented