We've heard a lot about the potential 9 billion dollar in selling pressure from Mt. Gox hitting the market soon.
But no one is talking about the 11 to 15 billion dollar in buying pressure from #FTX hitting the market soon.
Listen, #FTX owed more than
$11b to its users.
Currently they have salvaged over $15b in funds to repay EVERYONE.
Even better, they will pay back users with INTEREST.
Depending on the amount of repayment, some could receive up to 142% of their original amount and others as low as 118%.
Now get this:
We know that every single FTX user is a crypto investor right?
The majority stays here.
Especially if you all of a sudden have all your funds back.
Meaning most of the repayed funds will 100% be redeployed to the market.
(why did they start with crypto in the first place?)
This will further be validated by the fact that they can see that the crypto market is still alive and kicking.
Bitcoin new highs, more acceptance and still ton of potential despite the up and downs (remember, January to March this year was great!).
Imagine if they see the market get lively again soon.
"But Nova, surely not EVERYONE will put it in the market?"
Nope, but neither will EVERY Mt. Gox claim be sold either. Some will still hold it.
(I still expect MOST of the funds from FTX to be redeployed though)
Basically the Mt. Gox. Bitcoin amount ($ value) to enter the market is LESS than the amount in dollars that's available to be put into the market from FTX.
Which is why Mt. Gox doesn't really bother me that much.
Take the fact that besides all of this we still have other upcoming catalysts like a:
- Reduction in interest rates (September possible)
Or
- The presidential campaigns (pro bitcoin)
or ...
All of these will add fuel and demand as well to the market.
If you take all these factors into account you can see that the forecast is very promising both long term and short term.
Despite the fear what you have seen from Mt. Gox.
Nova out ๐ค
