At present, the market sentiment of buying the dips and going long is slowly spreading, which may be the difference between the judgment of retail investors and whale institutions. The reason for the sentiment of buying the dips and going long is the so-called technical aspect. The big cake has bottomed out many times, giving people a feeling that it cannot fall. At the same time, every time it drops to 26,000, there will be strong buying to support it. Therefore, all these appearances make many people feel that the bullish trend is obvious.
But do you remember the time when the price was around 29,000? At that time, the price fell to 29,000 several times and was held back by the sentiment of buying the bottom. How many people turned to long positions? How many people tried to buy the bottom? But the reality is that a wave of bad news directly smashed the market. Regardless of whether the main force was using the news to smash the market, it still harvested those bullish traders. This time is the same.
Trading straregy
There may be a short-term rebound in the future, but judging from the trend in the past few days, the rebound is relatively weak. The pressure from above is very high, and even if there is a rebound, the strength will not be too great.
Based on the following
1. It quickly fell below the upper oscillation zone. The market had just started to enter a downward trend. It had been oscillating above for two months. The short energy had accumulated strong enough. Once it fell below, it would not be possible for it to end so quickly. The short energy had not been fully released.
2. It fell to near the support level on the 17th and closed with a long lower shadow, indicating that many people are optimistic that this decline will only be around US$25,000, and then start to buy at the bottom.
3. After a sharp drop, it starts to fall slowly, just like when we drive, if the speed is too fast, even if we step on the brakes, the car will rush forward by inertia. The market also has inertia. The short volume is gradually shrinking, and the price has not broken the previous low, which means that it is an inertial decline and the short force is weakening.
4. After a sharp drop, the market began to fluctuate. Now the market is still in the oscillation zone. The oscillation zone that was broken by the spike yesterday was quickly closed again, indicating that the support below is getting stronger.
5. Yesterday's hammer line broke the previous low, but quickly closed up. Although it was a negative line, the long lower shadow showed that the bulls were stronger than the bears.
The four-hour market mostly maintained above the oscillation zone. Yesterday, the pin broke through the oscillation zone, but it closed quickly, forming a bullish engulfing with large volume. The market stopped falling, and the previous four-hour pullback with small volume showed that the strength of the bears is not strong.
Summarize:
The daily line direction is a bearish trend. The short-term bulls are slightly stronger, but the downward trend will weaken the bulls. The four-hour line is still in a shock zone. The bulls are stronger than the bears. The probability of a short-term rebound is greater than a decline, but there is a high probability that it will continue to fall later.
It is not recommended to bet on a rebound at this time. If the downward trend shows a rebound, don't bet on it. You can wait for the rebound to end and then short it. There is a great risk in betting on a rebound. Only by going with the trend can you survive better in the currency circle.
The cryptocurrency world has a bull market every four years. Will the fourth bull market peak in September 2025?
The first bull market peaked from January to December 2013 (lasting one year)
The second bull market was from August 2015 to December 2017 (lasting 2 years and 4 months)
The third wave is from March 2020 to November 2021 (1 year and 8 months)
According to the above data, we can continue to analyze and get more information
Because the halving time of BTC has a clear cycle, the three waves of bull market are also driven by halving.
Then, based on the historical market trends of the three waves of bull markets, we can find out how long the high points of the three waves of bull markets were apart.
The above picture is based on the market trend, comparing time, price and space.
The high point of the first bull market in 2013: $1,175
The high point of the second bull market in 2017: 19891 USD
The high point of the third bull market in 2021: US$68,958
The time difference between the first bull market and the second bull market is 1491 days, and the price difference is 16 times
The time difference between the second bull market and the third bull market is 1431 days, and the price difference is 2.46 times
Comparing the time and space of the previous three waves of bull market, the time difference between the peaks of each wave is around 1400 days.
The price gap is shrinking because the cost of BTC mining machines is increasing, the output is decreasing, and the market value is growing.
Therefore, it is normal for the increase to shrink with each wave.
It is hard to say what the next bull market peak will be. The probability of the rise exceeding the previous wave is very low.
The high point of the second wave is 19891 USD, compared with the high point of the third wave of 68958 USD, the difference is: 246%
Be conservative and cut it in half at 246%
The price is: US$137916-US$153776
Then, we can make a comprehensive analysis based on the time, space and price comparison of the past three bull markets.
The estimated high price of the fourth bull market is around 137916-153776 US dollars
The fourth bull market is expected to peak around September 2025.
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.