Data released yesterday showed that some of the economic data mentioned by Fed Chairman Bostic was in line with his preference for a rate cut strategy. Although Bostic predicted that a rate cut may be made in the fourth quarter of this year and expected four quarterly rate cuts in 2025, market participants are still closely watching key economic data for more clues about the future direction of monetary policy.
Among these key data, the non-farm payrolls report to be released next week and the CPR (Consumer Price Index, but usually CPR does not directly refer to the Consumer Price Index, it may be an abbreviation for a specific economic indicator, such as the core personal consumption expenditure price index CPI-Core) data next week are attracting much attention. These data will provide the market with direct information about the US economic situation and inflationary pressure, thereby affecting the Fed's decision on monetary policy.
Looking back at the non-farm data in May, the actual unemployment rate was 3.96%, which was not much different from the market expectation of 3.9%, showing the relative stability of the U.S. labor market. However, the estimated non-farm payrolls in June were about 180,000, which was lower than the actual data of 272,000 in May, but higher than the actual data of 175,000 in April.
For the June non-farm payrolls report, market participants are generally concerned about whether it will have a positive effect on the financial market. From the perspective of expectations, although the 180,000 new jobs are lower than the actual value of the previous month, this figure still shows that the US labor market is continuing to recover. If the actual data is close to or exceeds this expected value, it may be regarded as a positive signal, enhancing investors' confidence in economic recovery, thus having a positive impact on the financial market.
However, investors also need to note that the performance of a single data is not enough to completely determine the market trend. In addition to the non-farm payrolls report, other important economic data such as the CPR data will also have an impact on the market. Therefore, investors need to consider various factors comprehensively to formulate a more reasonable investment strategy.
In general, the non-farm payrolls report to be released next week and the CPR data the week after next will provide the market with important information about the state of the U.S. economy. Investors need to pay close attention to the performance of these data to assess their impact on the market and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
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