Bitcoin price below short-term average realized price
Bitcoin price is currently below its short-term average realized price of $626,000, which is a key support level during the bull market. Traders expect that US PCE inflation data and quarterly options expiration will set the stage for the market direction in the coming days, which may lead to large fluctuations. Will BTC price fall to $55,000 in the next few days, or will it rise back to $65,000?
Bitcoin traders look for clues
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, PCE and core PCE, performed in line last month, but Wall Street giants such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect inflation to cool as the Fed starts cutting interest rates in September. In new forecasts, the banks expect headline PCE inflation to fall from 2.7% to 2.5%, while core PCE inflation will fall further from 2.8% to 2.6%. Speculations of a Fed rate cut are growing as the Fed may soon follow other central banks in cutting rates as global inflation cools. However, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that "the Federal Reserve should keep its policy rate at its current level until at least the end of 2024." She added that inflation still faces upside risks due to strong U.S. economic growth. A strong U.S. labor market is a key factor in delaying rate cuts. The IMF's target rate of 2% for mid-2025 is earlier than the Fed's own forecast of 2026.
Analyst predicts Bitcoin price could drop to $55,000
Markus Thielen, CEO of cryptocurrency market research firm 10x Research, predicts that BTC prices will fall to $55,000. He listed 10 factors, including the double-top pattern of BTC prices, which could push Bitcoin to $55,000. Other reasons that could lead to a sharp drop in BTC prices are the falling weekly RSI despite investors buying on dips, the lack of institutional buying in spot Bitcoin ETFs, and rising selling pressure due to macro factors.
Market volatility and Bitcoin options data
Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) fell from 106.12 before the PCE data was released to the current 105.91. US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump clashed in the first presidential debate, and the US 10-year Treasury yield jumped to over 4.3%. Bitcoin moves in the opposite direction of DXY and US Treasury yields, and current data shows volatility and uncertainty. The layout is ongoing, communication +: GOOOKOOOY welcomes everyone to actively participate and witness the moment of miracle together
Despite the volatility, Bitcoin options data shows the market is transitioning to recovery, as also indicated by an increase in call options open interest, according to Deribit. Despite high market volatility, Bitcoin’s Implied Volatility (IV) has not grown significantly, with BTC’s IV below 50% for every major term. CoinGlass data shows an increase in total options open interest. As market sentiment slowly improves, the launch of a spot Ethereum ETF may avoid a sharp decline in BTC prices. Investors must keep an eye on the increase in trading volume, but a sudden move back to $65,000 will be challenging.
Current Market Conditions
The price of Bitcoin has increased by 1% in the past 24 hours and is currently trading at $61,291. The 24-hour minimum and maximum prices were $60,561 and $62,292 respectively. In addition, the trading volume has increased by 3% in the past 24 hours.
