Predicting Solana ETF Approval
Cryptocurrency market maker GSR is optimistic about Solana's superior technology and the changes in the U.S. political landscape in a report released on Thursday, and announced a long position in SOL. The company believes that following the Bitcoin spot ETF in January and the Ethereum spot ETF expected to be launched this summer, the Solana spot ETF may be the next cryptocurrency for asset management companies to promote ETFs. (The report was published before asset management company VanEck submitted the Solana ETF application.)
GSR analysts wrote in a report:
“Change has begun with Trump’s support for the cryptocurrency industry, which in turn has led Democrats to relax their stance on digital assets during the election year. Although the current legislative and regulatory environment is unlikely to support the launch of multiple spot Rules for digital asset ETFs, but the Trump administration and the liberal SEC commissioners may do so, and with the advancement of the bill to determine the structure of digital asset markets for securities and commodities, real possibilities will be opened.”
According to GSR's scoring criteria, Solana's market demand and degree of decentralization make it likely to become the cryptocurrency to launch an ETF after Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Solana Technology Advantages
In addition, GSR also listed three core reasons why Solana’s technology has a competitive advantage. The first is Solana’s “Proof of History” (PoH) technology.
“This technology is similar to how cellular towers send signals alternately when communicating to avoid interfering with each other. In Solana’s network, each node (or validator) can independently generate blocks when it is its turn, without waiting for other nodes to agree on the current block state first. This brings huge advantages in speed and scalability.”
Secondly, Solana's blockchain technology significantly improves the network's processing power (ie, throughput) by allowing "parallel transaction processing." This method takes advantage of the main way to speed up modern computing technology: increasing the number of cores in the processor rather than simply improving the performance of each core.
Finally, GSR pointed out that Solana's "historically high hardware and bandwidth requirements optimize speed and security," but at the expense of decentralization. However, as costs decrease, Solana has the potential to solve the "blockchain impossible triangle" in the future and ultimately realize the vision of synchronizing the global state at the speed of light.
SOL Price Prediction
As for the native token SOL, GSR pointed out that Bitcoin has risen 2.3 times from $27,000 in October last year (when “market participants began to believe that the US spot ETF was likely to be approved”) to the current price of about $63,000. GSR expects:
“Solana could grow 1.4x in a bear liquidity scenario, 3.4x in a sideways scenario, and 8.9x in a bull scenario. Furthermore, there is reason to believe the impact could be higher than these estimates because, unlike BTC, SOL is actively used for staking and in decentralized applications, and the relationship between relative liquidity and relative scale may not be linear.”
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