As Bitcoin corrects from its all-time high (ATH) of $108k, the market has seen a reduction in speculative excess, while demand remains steady. Short-term holders bear most unrealized losses, but stress levels are modest compared to previous downturns.

Executive Summary
Market Correction and Support:Bitcoin is down 11% from its ATH but maintains a constructive market structure above key support levels.Z-Score Analysis:Cyclical highs typically align with metrics trading 1.5 to 2.0σ above their mean, offering insight for navigating bullish phases.Short-Term Holders' Cost Basis:Bitcoin's current price is 10% above the short-term holders' cost basis of $88.4k. A drop below this level could signal increased downside risk.Unrealized Losses:Between 2.0M and 3.5M BTC are underwater, reflecting moderate market stress.Relative Unrealized Losses:Peaked at 4.3% in Q3 2024, lower than previous cycles, indicating a more patient and spot-driven market dynamic.
Evolving Peaks in Market Metrics
Realized Price and Market Structure
The Realized Price represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoins moved on-chain. Paired with the MVRV Ratio, these metrics provide a lens to evaluate unrealized profits and losses:
MVRV Ratio: Currently at 1.32, indicating the average Bitcoin holds an unrealized profit of 32%.Positive Sentiment: This metric mirrors conditions seen post-ATH in mid-April 2024, reflecting resilience despite market corrections.
Short-Term Holders and Risk Levels
The current price is above the short-term holders' average cost basis, maintaining a buffer against downside momentum.If momentum stalls and the price dips below $88.4k, short-term holders may face higher stress levels, potentially triggering a broader correction.
Spot-Driven Market Dynamics
Compared to earlier cycles marked by external shocks, the current market reflects a more spot-driven and patient investor base. Unrealized losses are concentrated among short-term participants, indicating less speculative froth than in previous corrections.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin faces moderate stress during this correction, the market structure remains constructive. Key metrics such as the MVRV Ratio and relative unrealized losses suggest that sentiment is still positive, albeit cautiously. Maintaining levels above $88.4k is critical for sustaining market confidence and avoiding a deeper correction.


$BTC #OnChainAnalysis #Glassnode #BTC #cpi #USPPITrends

The End of Traditional Banks?

The platforms of

on-chain lending

They are cutting out traditional middlemen, allowing users to lend and borrow without the need for banks. Decentralization is the key to the new economy.

Higher Interests, Less Risk:

Lenders in the blockchain ecosystem can earn much higher returns than banks, while borrowers can access liquidity more quickly and efficiently. The interest game is being rewritten.

$ETH
Recent on-chain data reveals that Ethereum’s supply is becoming increasingly concentrated, with a significant portion now controlled by the largest wallet holders. The “Supply Distribution” metric, which categorizes wallets based on the number of ETH held, highlights this growing trend.

Wallet groups are divided into three major cohorts for analysis: retail investors holding 0-100 ETH, mid-tier holders or “sharks” and “whales” with 100-100,000 ETH, and the mega whales who own over 100,000 ETH. While retail investors hold relatively minor amounts and have minimal impact on price movements, the mid-tier group represents larger investors with growing influence. However, the spotlight now shifts to the mega whales, entities holding vast amounts of Ethereum, sometimes exceeding $400 million at current market rates.

Over the past decade, the dominance of mega whales has reached new heights. Data indicates that just 104 wallets now control 57.35% of the total ETH supply, marking an all-time high. In contrast, holdings among sharks and whales have declined to 33.46%, their lowest point on record. While supply centralization often raises concerns about market manipulation, Ethereum’s Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism adds another layer of complexity. Under PoS, entities holding 51% of the total supply could theoretically influence or control the network.

However, it’s essential to note that many of these mega whale wallets belong to staking pools, custodial platforms, and exchanges, where funds are collectively held for thousands of individual investors. As Ethereum continues to evolve, this concentration remains a critical point of interest for market participants monitoring both decentralization and network security.

#EthereumWhaleDominance #OnChainAnalysis #ETH4KSurge #CryptoMarketWatch

In the cryptocurrency market, analyzing and predicting price trends can be a significant challenge. However, with the development of on-chain analysis tools, traders can leverage public blockchain data to gain a better understanding of market movements and make more accurate trading decisions.
So what is on-chain analysis and how can it help traders in predicting price trends? Let's explore!